The publisher of Ovation Magazine, Dele Momodu, published an open letter to President Tinubu a few days ago in which he referred to himself as a “friend” and “brother” of Mr. President, and affirmed that he owed the president “only one thing, the TRUTH.” He claimed that “it is obvious that the first thing that takes flight in the Presidential villa is TRUTH.” Mr. Momodu further wrote, “I’m writing you today, not because I expect you to act on my suggestions, but to put it on record that someone gave you the true picture of things. I am also hoping that some of your friends will read and interpret to you, in a sober moment…”
The preface of Mr. Momodu’s open letter to his “friend” suggests that either he has removed himself from Mr. President’s group of “friends” that should “read and interpret to” him (President Tinubu) “in a sober moment” the content of Momodu’s letter, or his “friend” and “brother” President Tinubu has lately made it impossible for Dele Momodu to have access to him by phone, email, or whatever form now that Momodu, in his words, is now “a member of the opposition.” Momodu wrote to President Tinubu, “As you’re aware,I’m a member of opposition, but you and I have had a long history together.” If Mr. Momodu has lost all forms of access to his “friend” lately, I should advise President Tinubu to restore access so that his “friend” can offer useful private counsel instead of resorting to “Open Letters”, and to restore Momodu’s confidence that President Tinubu would “act on [his] suggestions.”
I read through Mr. Momodu’s open letter and found no single commendation of any of President Tinubu’s efforts in the past 13 months to stymie Nigeria’s economic bleeding, shore up Nigeria’s trade surplus, inject health into Nigeria’s financial sector, grow government’s revenue and free up needed funds from wasteful expenditures, provide education assistance to the needy and agricultural support to farmers, develop critical national infrastructure, restore local government financial autonomy for the benefits of Nigerians living at the grassroots, or to keep Nigeria safe. It is painful to be in the field, laboring to bring in the harvest, while a friend stands afar off offering no word of encouragement but only fault-finding and excoriating vituperations. I am not President Tinubu’s “friend” or “brother”, but neither am I his enemy. Additionally, I am not the President’s spokesperson or adviser. However, as a citizen of Nigeria, I owe my patriots TRUTH, verifiable TRUTH, so that national hope shall not be dried up in the harsh weather of misrepresentations or half-truths.
Momodu made a definitive proclamation in his open letter: “Nigeria is in big trouble.” He wrote, “Our economy has virtually collapsed.” He then indicted President Tinubu as follows: “You’ve been wasting too much money at a time that requires absolute frugality. Please, stop this reckless propensity for wasting scarce resources.” And what does Momodu consider as “wasting too much money”? He said the president is “purchasing Presidential jets, building outlandish monuments, distributing cash as palliatives, etc.” He referred to all these alleged actions by President Tinubu as “signs of a failed and careless government.” Additionally, Mr. Momodu made an open allegation against President Tinubu: “I believe you’re frittering away our resources because you desperately crave a second term. But the best assurance of a second term is PERFORMANCE.” I understand that some Nigerian youths are planning a national protest soon. Words by “friends” of President Tinubu such as Dele Momodu, no doubt, will be spurs to their side. Mr. Momodu used this provocative and inciting catch phrase in his letter to President Tinubu: “Nigerians are not expecting you to turn water into wine, but they don’t want you to turn their wine into water.” I should not say that Mr. Momodu’s open letter to Mr. President is a “put-off”, but it is beneath a former presidential aspirant and a “friend”. I would like to analyze and diagnose Nigeria’s social dynamics before and under President Tinubu in the hope that Nigerians would not mistake their enemies for friends.
On Tuesday, July 16, I was a guest on PERSPECTIVES, an audience call-in program on InvictaFM 98.9, Kaduna to discuss the theme: “EndBadGovernanceInNigeria Protest”.Lack of useful information at the disposal of citizens makes social engagement as citizens unfruitful as wrong social diagnosis often results in wrongful apportioning of blame and violent reaction. Are Nigerians feeling economic heat in the face of rising energy cost and concomitant inflation that has eroded household incomes? Yes. Are President Tinubu’s twin economic policy decisions to remove fuel subsidy and deregulate naira exchange rates contributory to the twin problems of high energy costs and inflation? Again, yes. Were those policies unavoidable and necessary? Yes. Is the government of President Tinubu taking steps to reduce the hardship being suffered by Nigerians? Yes. Let us reason together:
Fuel subsidy in Nigeria became unsustainable over the years as government’s revenues dwindled with low crude oil production, increasing national liquid fuel consumptions, and absence of local refining of petroleum products, all during the pre-Tinubu era. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) stopped remitting oil export revenues to the Federation Account over a period of about 18 months until the swearing-in of President Tinubu, and shortly after President Buhari signed the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in October 2021, which excluded fuel subsidy. To support government spending, the Buhari government (secretly?) borrowed over N 21 trillion from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through an instrument called Ways and Means (whereby national governments borrow from their central or reserve banks). If Momodu or any other Nigerian became President of Nigeria on May 29, 2023, what legal authority could they have to sustain fuel subsidy, and from which financial source could they have funded it? President Tinubu had no choice to make in this matter.
There was another deleterious subsidy that the Nigerian government paid for many years, but only to the privileged politically connected few in Nigeria—foreign exchange subsidy: official exchange rates were regularly fixed by the CBN. However, Everyday Nigerians could not buy foreign currencies (such as the US dollar) at those rates. For instance, if the CBN fixed N 400 to $1, only privileged Nigerians could buy dollars at this rate, and could sell at as much as N700 per US dollar on the parallel market, making an arbitrage of N300 or more. Thus, an investment of N400 million, for instance, in purchasing a million US dollars could fetch the privileged class a “profit” of N 300 million on round tripping! Thus, millionaires without productivity emerged in Nigeria at alarming rate. This Naira subsidy was too tempting to be stopped by the federal government. President Tinubu came and refused to sustain it. The removal of those two subsidies at once by President Tinubu on May 29, 2023, was a stunning attack on the source of wealth of a few but very rich and politically connected and powerful class. Suddenly, the naira started “depreciating” at the parallel market even away from the parallel market position of about N700 to $1.What happened? This had nothing to do with “market or economic forces”; rather, the beneficiaries of the old order fought back, using all immoral means, including online platforms to “destroy” the naira through artificial manipulation. Their intent was to instigate social discontent against President Tinubu. But how has President Tinubu’s government engineered its way through thus far?
The CBN, through a combination of policies, has succeeded in stabilizing the naira exchange rate against major currencies of the world within a stable window. But the naira is still “weak”, someone might say. Well, a weak currency is one that is unstable, unpredictable, and which keeps on the downward slide. Having cleared the backlog of foreign currency debts owed to foreign investors, confidence in Nigeria’s economy has soared, resulting in growth in Nigeria’s foreign reserves and foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria’s stock market. Additionally, Nigeria’s exports (especially non-oil exports) became attractive, resulting in Nigeria earning N 19 trillion from exports in the first quarter of 2024, with trade surplus of over N 6 trillion! What does this mean? Nigerians are producing more than consuming and exporting more than importing. To paint a more attractive picture, while Nigeria exported goods worth over N 1. 3 trillion to ECOWAS countries in the first quarter of 2024, her imports from the same countries were valued at less than N140 billion within the same period! (Source: Nigerian Bureau of Statistics)
Understanding that citizens’ poverty cannot be reduced without adequate funds to the 3rd tier of government (the 774 local government areas) and knowing that the “emperors of Nigeria”, the governors of many of the states in Nigeria, have been withholding the monthly allocations meant for those local governments for over two decades, President Tinubu instructed the Minister of Justice and the Attorney-General of the Federation to institute a public interest suit at the Supreme Court seeking financial autonomy for the local government councils and their freedom from democratic disruption by the governors who delight in every so often replacing democratically-elected local government councils with so-called “caretaker committees. I consider the July 11, 2024, judgement of the Supreme Court granting all the prayers of the Federal Government “Nigeria’s second independence.” Yes, I have read some commentaries by agents of the old order claiming that “the Supreme Court judgement cannot be implement.” I understand the pains and anger of enemies of Nigeria against President Tinubu for this action as well. I was asked during the radio show on July 16, by the host (Toyin Alabi), “Prof., the governors are angry at Tinubu, and threatening that he will not come back in 2027. What do you say?” I replied that their discreet threat was an “uncouth joke” With revenue going directly to the local government councils, shall come better social services and public projects at this level of government, resulting in improved quality and standard of living and reduction in material poverty of the people.
Momodu wrote President Tinubu should “invest in vocational skills for our highly talented youths who can demonstrate their capacity for hard work.” I should refer Mr. Momodu to the Fourth Schedule of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended). Vocational education is one of the functions of Local Government Councils. Now that President Tinubu has caused revenue from the Federation Account to go directly to the local government councils (through the Supreme Court judgment), such services and many others listed in the Fourth Schedule of the Constitution would and should be rendered to the grassroots people by the local government councils. Mr. Momodu can offer the suggestion of vocational education to his local government chairman even as I will to mine in Benue State (Ushongo LGA).
To assist indigent Nigerian students to have access to tertiary and technical education, on Wednesday, July 17, President Tinubu officially launched the portal of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), having approved N 35 billion a few weeks ago for the take-off of the student loan scheme, which is to benefit the 70,000 initial applicants, averaging N500, 000 per applicant. 1.2 million beneficiaries are being targeted in the first phase of the scheme! Momodu may refer to monumental infrastructural development in Nigeria being undertaken by the Tinubu government as “outlandish monuments”, but Nigeria has great need of uncommon roads, bridges, railways, etc., to hasten national economic renaissance. Investment in agriculture (including distribution of trailer-loads of fertilizers to states) by the Tinubu government is indubitable.
Nigeria’s petroleum refining capacity is brilliantly growing with the commissioning of private refineries, primary among which is the 650,000-barrel-a-day Dangote Refinery which is currently exporting refined petroleum products to Asia, West Africa, and Europe, threatening to shut down refineries in Europe that were being run mainly to export refined petroleum products to West Africa. Nigerian refineries presently face local stoke (crude oil) supply problem as international oil companies (IOCs) producing crude oil in Nigeria are not well-disposed to selling crude oil to them. It is unacceptable that Dangote Refinery currently imports crude oil from the US and Brazil. President Tinubu should forcefully and productively intervene in the national interest and compel the IOCs to satisfy local refineries first before exporting the residue (I understand that he gave the directive, but he should see to it that his presidential directive is enforced, and any official that prevaricates must be sanctioned forthwith). Just as President Tinubu recently banned the export of maize to satisfy the domesticmarket, he should do same in the oil sector. It is a national emergency. Whatever actions that will reduce energy cost is good for Nigeria’s economy, with positive impact on reduction of inflation.
I agree with Dele Momodu that President Tinubu’s government should find a better channel of offering poverty-alleviating assistance to the people. I propose that with restoration of financial autonomy to local government councils, the federal government should relate directly with them in offering aid to the poor at the grassroots. For instance, beneficiaries should register at Council Ward offices in the Local Government Areas, and be issued digital assistance cards with which they can be identified to receive necessary aid at “Public Assistance Banks (PAB)”, including food aid, childbirth aid, and Medicare. Politicians should be kept away from such aid to the people, which should rather be managed by civil servants.Ad hoc arrangements should be jettisoned.
Furthermore, to assist the president with nifty ideas to promote quality education in Nigeria, President Tinubu should without delay appoint a Senior Advisor (SA) on education, who has in the past demonstrated in both policy formulation or advocacyand practice brilliant ideas regarding education. I commend and endorse the recently publicized idea of inviting foreign investors to invest and partner with public universities to enhance university education in Nigeria. Recently, I exchanged ideas with an American who is president/vice chancellor of a private university in Nigeria. Let me cite what he wrote to me: “Nigeria used to be a hub for education until chronic underfunding and outdated regulations reduced the quality of tertiary federal education. The inflexibility and lack on progressive thinking still impacts both federal and private institutions.”President Tinubu should seek new and relevant thinking in education and other sectors. Change should not be introduced just for the sake of change.
Doubtless, the president is a transformative leader, who is not afraid of doing things differently and in a pioneering way. Not everybody (even his “friends”) will agree with him, and he shouldn’t have expectations of unbending acquiesce.
I don’t need to comment on Mr. Momodu’s suggestions to President Tinubu on Minister Wike and Senator Ndume. Both are the president’s friends, and he knows how to relate with his friends.
Leonard Karshima Shilgba is a professor of mathematics at the Admiralty University of Nigeria