Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next President as no candidate for any of the 3 contending parties ( Labour, APC, PDP) is a clear frontrunner according to the latest polls.
This was disclosed in the election forecast report by the Socio-Economic research firm, SBM Intelligence on Friday evening in partnership with EiE.
The report added that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states – Kano and Lagos.
The survey polled 11,534 Nigerians across the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), ensuring a population-reflective representation across demographics such as age, gender, religion and income levels, and the rural-urban split.
62% were male, 38% were female, with those ages 24-32, the largest age distribution at 34%, while 26% are employed and 21% were students.
Wins by states: The survey revealed that Peter Obi is expected to win 17 states, followed by Atiku with 11 states and Bola Tinubu – with 9 states 25% vote share minimum.
However, for a 25% vote share minimum, Atiku Abubakar leads forecasts with 27 states, Peter Obi with 25 states and Bola Tinubu – with 20 states.
Voter interest: The report added that many voters in this year’s elections will attempt to vote across party lines, as the Presidential interest gets 100% interest.
- “Most voters are focused on the Presidential elections, with the Presidential elections getting 100% interest level from those surveyed followed by 34.5% for Governorship, 19.86 %( Senate), 16.75 %(House of Reps), 14.24% (state assembly)
- “Our survey shows that many voters in this year’s elections will attempt to vote across party lines in the presidential, legislative and gubernatorial ballots.
- “There are also real challenges – security, economic, social – that the country goes into the elections with that are likely to impact how the electorate will vote significantly.”
No clear favourite: SBM added it is not confident enough to call the election for any candidates as its latest polling data does not provide a clear frontrunner, they said:
- “Considering heightened voter interest, the surge in voter awareness and education by political, institutional and civil society actors, the absence of a ruling incumbent in this cycle and an expected rise in participation, an analysis of the latest polling data does not provide us with a clear frontrunner – an unprecedented state of affairs in Nigerian electoral history.”
Their data suggested that two of the four leading candidates – the Labour Party’s Peter Obi and the Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar – could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of Nigerian states spread across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to be able to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states.
However, it is complicated by the fact that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states – Kano and Lagos – and coupled with strong performances in heavily populated Southwest and Northwest states.
- “For all of the reasons enumerated above, we are not confident enough to call the election for any candidates.
- “We maintain our initial assessment from our two previous forecasts – Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next President definitively.”