Mr. President, the stakes could not be higher. Allowing these conflicts to escalate risks not only the stability of Rivers and Kano but the entire nation. Your leadership and decisive action are crucial in navigating these treacherous waters. The people of Nigeria look to you to uphold peace, justice, and democracy.
In the chaotic aftermath of the 2023 general elections in Nigeria, the political landscape has turned into a ticking time bomb, particularly in Kano and Rivers States. These flashpoints reveal the fierce and often dangerous ambitions lurking within Nigeria’s political elite, threatening to engulf the nation in turmoil and potentially spark unprecedented unrest.
Kano State is on the brink of political implosion. The controversial governorship election results have ignited a fierce legal battle between the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). The Court of Appeal’s disqualification of Abba Yusuf, the NNPP candidate, in favor of Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the APC, has only fueled the flames. With the Supreme Court’s ruling imminent, the outcome could set off unprecedented upheaval in Kano.
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s drastic action of dissolving the Kano Emirates, a significant political institution established by his predecessor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has added fuel to the fire. The reinstatement of the 14th Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, who was dethroned under Ganduje’s regime, has defied court orders and escalated tensions. Yusuf’s claim that the dethronement was a political vendetta by Ganduje further underscores the explosive nature of this conflict. Subsequently, Governor Yusuf replaced Emir Sanusi with Ado Bayero, further complicating the situation. As I write this, the judiciary’s confusing and contradictory decisions on this emir issue have only intensified the chaos.
The tension between Yusuf and Ganduje has reached new heights. Yusuf’s accusations of misrule against Ganduje and Ganduje’s counterclaims that Yusuf is deflecting from his own failures have created a volatile atmosphere. Ganduje, now the APC Chairman, appears to have federal backing, potentially exacerbating tensions and undermining the democratic process in Kano State. This feud threatens not only the governance and stability of Kano State but could also spill over into widespread civil unrest.
Rivers State is teetering on the edge of chaos. The deteriorating relationship between former Governor Nyesom Wike, now Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, and his successor, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, has erupted into a full-blown political war. Wike’s aggressive attempts to control Fubara’s administration and his backing of an impeachment plot have inflamed the situation. His insistence that the impeachment is constitutional, rather than a military coup, reveals deep and dangerous divisions. Despite these efforts, Fubara remains resolute.
The extension of local government chairmen’s tenure by Wike’s loyal faction in the State House of Assembly, followed by their harsh actions towards Fubara’s supporters, has created an unconstitutional and perilous precedent. The appointment of caretaker chairpersons by Fubara to replace Wike’s loyalists further exacerbates the situation, undermining democratic governance and escalating the power struggle to dangerous levels.
The clashes between Fubara and Wike, coupled with the breakdown of a peace deal brokered by you, Mr. President, indicate the complexity of the issue and the need for sustained effort to resolve the conflict. The history of violence and oil-related conflicts in Rivers State adds to the volatility, making the current political crisis even more alarming.
In both states, the police are caught in the middle and appear to be influenced by the psychology of federal power, causing them to act beyond their real assignments and creating conflicts with the governors. Meanwhile, the judiciary has become a battleground. The practice of “judge shopping” to secure favorable rulings highlights the deep-seated corruption and manipulation within Nigeria’s political system. The perception of judicial corruption and the intertwining of legal and political processes reveal a judiciary under siege, struggling to maintain impartiality amid intense political pressure.
The reliance on the judiciary to navigate political disputes underscores the deep-seated issues within Nigeria’s political system, where legal and political processes are often intertwined, and the rule of law is frequently tested. Allegations of corrupt practices within the judiciary, which some politicians might exploit to influence decisions in their favor, further complicate these legal battles. The perception of a compromised judiciary exacerbates public distrust and threatens the very foundation of Nigeria’s democracy.
President Bola Tinubu’s recent intervention in the Rivers State crisis, intended to mediate between Wike and Fubara, is seen by many as a critical but controversial move. Perceived favoritism towards Wike, due to their political ties, has only deepened suspicions and tensions. The fragile reconciliation between Fubara and Wike, following Tinubu’s intervention, is precarious at best, leaving the door wide open for further conflict.
In Kano, the bitter feud between Governor Yusuf and Ganduje has reached new heights. Yusuf’s accusations of misrule against Ganduje and Ganduje’s counterclaims that Yusuf is deflecting from his own failures have created a volatile atmosphere. Ganduje’s possible belief that you, Mr. President, have assured him of your support in maintaining his position as APC National Chairman, despite attempts by some to remove him, adds a layer of complexity to the situation. This perception of federal backing has the potential to exacerbate tensions and undermine the democratic process in Kano State.
Mr. President, the situation is dire. Your intervention is not just crucial but urgent. Federal institutions must be shielded from being tools of political vendettas. Promoting dialogue, upholding the rule of law, and ensuring democratic principles are upheld is essential to defuse this ticking time bomb. You must call each of these men in and say, “Stop it.”
Your unique position allows you to mediate these explosive situations. A balanced and impartial approach is imperative to prevent these conflicts from spiraling out of control. The potential for unrest is alarmingly high, and decisive, just action is required to avert disaster.
In these critical times, your leadership is more important than ever. Your unique position as president allows you to mediate and foster dialogue among these influential figures and their constituents. It is essential to avoid taking sides, as this could escalate tensions and widen divisions. Instead, your administration should aim to be a symbol of peace, understanding, and compromise.
Rivers and Kano States are on the brink of disaster, embroiled in power struggles that threaten their peace and stability. These conflicts are not just political battles; they are symptomatic of a deeper issue where personal interests and the desire to maintain control are overshadowing the greater good of the states and their populations. The implications of these power struggles extend beyond the individuals involved, affecting the security, governance, and economic stability of Rivers and Kano States, and by extension, Nigeria.
Mr. President, the stakes could not be higher. Allowing these conflicts to escalate risks not only the stability of Rivers and Kano but the entire nation. Your leadership and decisive action are crucial in navigating these treacherous waters. The people of Nigeria look to you to uphold peace, justice, and democracy.
This is a warning, Mr. President. The political inferno in Kano and Rivers States must be extinguished before it consumes the nation. Immediate and bold intervention is necessary to prevent a catastrophic breakdown. The future of Nigeria hangs in the balance.
They keep finding ways to keep these two states in turmoil, consciously or unconsciously wishing, Mr. President, to push you to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State amid the escalating rift between Governor Sim Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, and in Kano amid the fierce conflict between Governor Yusuf and his predecessor, Ganduje. It’s as if their motto is, “If I can’t have it, let it burn.” Mr. President, you can resolve this in 5 minutes by demanding that Wike and Ganduje stop their destructive antics. If not, your administration risks being consumed by the backlash from the people of Rivers and Kano, who will not tolerate any attempts to derail democracy in their states.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, do not allow these ostensible self-serving power brokers to push you towards regret. The Nigerian military—God knows we do not want them back in power. Please intervene to prevent these two political figures from driving the country into unnecessary chaos just to maintain their influence. This is a critical warning, sir. The fate of your administration and the stability of our nation hang in the balance.
Professor John Egbeazien Oshodi, born in Uromi, Edo State, Nigeria, is an American-based police and prison scientist, forensic psychologist, public policy psychologist, and legal psychologist. He’s a government advisor on forensic-clinical psychological services in the USA and the founder of the Dr. John Egbeazien Oshodi Foundation for Psychological Health. With a significant role in introducing forensic psychology to Nigeria through N.U.C. and Nasarawa State University, he’s also a former Secretary-General of the Nigeria Psychological Association. He’s taught at esteemed institutions like Florida Memorial University, Florida International University, Nova Southeastern University, and more, and is currently an online faculty member at Weldios University, Nexus International University, and Walden University. [email protected]