The blockade followed failed talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad. The Arab officials told The Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia has warned that Iran could retaliate by disrupting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key Red Sea maritime chokepoint used by vessels carrying Saudi crude through alternative export routes.
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Bab al-Mandeb is a narrow maritime corridor that separates Yemen from the Horn of Africa. It links the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean and forms part of the shipping route that continues onward toward the Suez Canal.
WSJ mentioned that Saudi Arabia has managed to bring its oil exports back to almost pre-war levels by averaging around seven million barrels per day. The recovery has been possible due to crude being routed through desert pipelines to Red Sea terminals instead of relying on the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen hold control over parts of the coastal areas close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. According to Arab officials, Tehran is now encouraging the group to again consider shutting down the strategic shipping route after earlier disruptions during Israel’s war on Gaza.
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“If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it,” Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen, told WSJ.
The report further quoted an Iranian news agency, which suggested that continued US action could prompt the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to consider restricting access to the Red Sea shipping corridor.
Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Ali Akbar Velayati also signalled on social media that Tehran views the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as strategically similar to the Strait of Hormuz.
“And if the White House thinks of repeating its stupid mistakes, it will quickly realise that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single signal,” he added.
At the same time, Houthi representatives have provided assurances that Saudi vessels using the Bab al-Mandeb route will not be targeted, Arab officials said.
But they said the situation still remains uncertain as Houthis could step up their involvement if pressure from Iran increases. There is another layer of concern: Houthis, like Iran, could charge fees on commercial vessels if conditions worsen.
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