US Federal Reserve begins FOMC meeting, markets expect rates to stay at 3.5-3.75, focus on Jerome Powell press conference amid inflation and US-Iran conflict risks
The outcome of the meeting by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be announced later tonight (April 29), with the policy statement scheduled for 2 PM ET.
This will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 12 AM IST (April 30), a key event investors will parse for forward guidance.
Street expectations are firmly tilted towards a pause. The Fed is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range, extending a pause that has been in place through 2026 so far.
The central bank has refrained from making any moves this year after a phase of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, choosing instead to assess evolving macro signals. These include sticky inflation, resilient consumption, and a still-strong labour market in the US, all complicated by fresh risks stemming from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has pushed up crude prices.
Market pricing reflects near certainty on a hold, with Fed funds futures indicating no immediate policy pivot and pushing expectations of any rate action further down the line.
