Former Ambassador to Iran DP Srivastava said Tehran has remained firm in its position that it will not return to negotiations unless the blockade is lifted. “Nothing will bring Tehran back unless the blockade is lifted,” he said, adding that Iran sees itself as negotiating “under duress” given the ongoing military and economic pressure.
The standoff comes at a time when both Washington and Tehran appear locked in a high-stakes strategy, with US President Donald Trump pursuing what Srivastava described as a “maximum pressure policy”, while Iran resists engagement without relief from sanctions and restrictions on its oil exports. He noted that the prolonged disruption has imposed heavy costs not just on Iran but also on Gulf economies, with billions of dollars in lost oil revenues and potential long-term damage to production capacity.
From a market perspective, Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, cautioned that the economic impact on Iran may not be immediate despite the blockade. “They will continue to deliver cargoes, probably for another two to three months, before any real economic pain sets in,” he said, pointing to significant volumes of Iranian crude already in transit towards key buyers such as China.
However, Wright stressed that there is no clear evidence yet that Iranian oil shipments have successfully bypassed the US blockade. He added that while some vessels have switched off tracking systems, “it is a stretch to say they have definitively bypassed the blockade”. According to him, if Washington intends to inflict meaningful economic damage, the blockade would need to be sustained over a longer period. “If the US wants to apply real economic pressure, it needs to maintain the blockade for months, not just days,” he said.
Sanjeev P. Yadav, founder of Banyan Tree Global, said the US appears committed to maintaining pressure until Iran makes substantive concessions. He argued that the current situation—marked by no active conflict, no agreement, and restricted oil flows—works in Washington’s favour. “The US still holds leverage, and that leverage is weakening further for Iran by the day,” Yadav said.
He added that Iran is facing not just external pressure but also internal challenges, including limited storage capacity and strain on ageing oil fields, which may need to be shut if exports remain constrained. While acknowledging that US allies in the region are experiencing short-term disruptions, Yadav said the broader strategic alignment among Arab nations against Iran could strengthen over time.
The geopolitical tensions have intensified in recent weeks, with both sides engaging in vessel seizures and interceptions. Iran has reportedly attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and seized multiple vessels, while US forces have intercepted Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters. The situation has raised concerns over maritime security and disrupted global shipping routes.
So far, US Central Command has blocked more than 30 ships from entering the strait, underlining the scale of the blockade. President Trump has defended the move, stating that the blockade exerts greater pressure on Iran than direct military strikes, even as he extended the ceasefire indefinitely to allow space for negotiations.
Tehran, however, has blamed Washington for the lack of progress in talks, reiterating that it will not engage unless restrictions are eased. Srivastava suggested that a potential pathway forward could involve reciprocal measures from both sides, such as a temporary suspension of the blockade in exchange for easing of Iranian actions in the strait.
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Meanwhile, the prolonged disruption has begun to ripple through global energy markets, with crude prices climbing towards $100 per barrel. Concerns have also emerged over the logistical and operational challenges of clearing the strait, with reports suggesting that mine-clearing operations could take months, further complicating any near-term resolution.
As the impasse drags on, analysts say the trajectory of the blockade—and whether either side is willing to compromise—will remain a critical factor shaping oil markets and geopolitical stability in the region.
