The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 downwards to 4.1 percent, citing structural constraints and global uncertainties.
This is according to its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa.”
Previously, the lender had projected 4.4 percent growth for 2026 and 2027. The 2027 forecast has also been reduced to 4.2 percent, with 2028 projected at 4.3 percent.
The downgrade reflects moderate macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in investment.
The report highlights the services sector including ICT, finance, and real estate as the main driver of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly.
Inflation is projected to ease from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026 and further to 10.7 percent by 2028.
“Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict,” the World Bank noted.
The global lender warned that external risks, including the escalating Middle East conflict and commodity price volatility, could affect business sentiment and reform momentum ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 elections.
Household consumption is expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, slightly down from 1.8 in 2025, while investment will contribute 1.0 percentage point, up from 0.9.
The services sector is forecast to account for about half of total growth, led by finance, ICT, trade, and tourism.
The report also revised growth forecasts downward across sub-Saharan Africa, with countries including Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia seeing cuts, though macroeconomic stabilisation has helped bolster private consumption and investment in the region.
