Ukrainian drones have increasingly breached the airspace of NATO and European Union member states in the Baltics, raising serious questions about the alliance’s eastern flank air defences.
Recent months have seen drones crash into an Estonian power plant chimney, strike empty fuel tanks in Latvia, and be intercepted by Romanian fighter jets over Lithuania. This culminated in residents of Vilnius, Lithuania, seeking shelter in underground car parks on Wednesday following warnings of unidentified drone activity originating from neighbouring Belarus.
While no fatalities or injuries have been reported, these escalating incursions have drawn criticism from some Baltic ministers towards Kyiv and even contributed to the collapse of the Latvian government in May. Ukraine has intensified attacks on Baltic Sea ports used for Russian energy exports, aiming to deplete Moscow’s war chest. This strategy comes as U.S. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran has driven up global oil prices, a crucial revenue stream for the Kremlin.
As these Ukrainian drones have travelled north, they have skirted the borders of NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland, with some remaining undetected until they crash-landed. Ukrainian officials have apologised, stating the drones were targeting military sites within Russia but were diverted off course by Russian electronic interference. The repeated airspace violations underscore growing concerns regarding the robustness of air defence systems along NATO’s eastern frontier.
Ukraine has ramped up its attacks against Russia, focusing on arms factories, ports on the Baltic Sea and energy facilities as the war in Iran has boosted the oil price.
It has particularly targeted the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, close to the borders of Estonia and Finland. Russia uses the ports to load up ships taking its oil exports through the Baltic Sea.
During one attack in May, which set part of the port of Primorsk on fire, more than 60 Ukrainian drones were shot down, Leningrad region governor Alexander Drozdenko said.
After stray Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace on May 7, the country’s Defense Minister Andris Spruds and Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned.
On May 19, a Romanian fighter jet based in Lithuania shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said it was likely aimed at targets in Russia and that he told Ukraine to send its drones “as far from NATO territory as possible.”
Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Nordic and Baltic nations have increasingly warned about electronic interference from Russia disrupting communications with planes, ships and drones.
In the Baltic region, Russia often uses jamming and spoofing to send drones off course.
Satellite communications systems — known collectively as the Global Navigation Satellite System, or GNSS — receive precise time signals from satellites around 20,000 kilometers (12,400 miles) away in space. A smartphone, car, marine or aircraft navigation system compares how long it takes to receive signals from several different satellites to calculate an exact location.
Jamming occurs when a receiver is overwhelmed by a strong radio signal transmitted in the same frequency range as GNSS and other satellite navigation signals, leaving the receiver unable to fix its location or time. Spoofing involves transmitting fake signals that imitate a real GNSS satellite signal, commonly known as GPS, to mislead a phone, ship, or aircraft into thinking it is in a different place.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Tuesday that Russia is “deliberately” redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace with electronic interference.
In September 2025, about 20 Russian drones flew into Poland, putting the spotlight on holes in NATO’s air defenses, as multimillion-dollar jets were scrambled. Those drones were not detected in advance, Estonia’s defense minister said at the time.
Neither was a Ukrainian military drone which crashed with explosives in Lithuania last week, Vilmantas Vitkauskas, chief of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre said on Sunday.
While Poland and Romania responded to the drone incursions last year by deploying new anti-drone technology — the first used by the NATO alliance aimed specifically at countering drones — that system is not in place across the entire Baltic region.
Defending against drones requires solving a complex set of technological, financial and bureaucratic problems and “there is no one solution against every type of drone,” Colonel Janno Märk of the Estonian Defense Forces said.
There are various types of drones that operate at different speeds and altitudes, requiring a layered air defense response, Märk said during military exercises in southeastern Estonia.
Budrys, the Lithuanian foreign minister, told AP in an interview Saturday that the Baltic countries are likely going to have to continue to counter incursions from Ukrainian drones as Kyiv now has the capability to reach targets “deep in Russia” as well as ports on the Baltic Sea. The way to counter those drones, he said, is actually with Ukraine’s help as the most effective anti-drone systems have been developed in the country.
Writing on X, Budrys accused Moscow of “waging smear campaigns” after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, claimed on Tuesday without providing evidence, that Ukraine is preparing to begin launching drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries.
The SVR claimed Ukrainian military personnel had already deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s NATO membership wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.”
Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman, Heorhii Tykhyi, said Tuesday that none of the Baltic states or Finland have ever allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for strikes against Russia.
Budrys called the SVR claim a “transparent act of desperation” and an attempt to sow chaos and distract from a “simple reality” — that Ukraine is hitting Russia’s military machine hard.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised on Tuesday the alliance’s reaction to the drone incidents, saying that they had been met with “a calm, decisive and proportionate response.”
