Commission Numbers Fulani Militia at 30,000, But That’s an Undercount: Experts
By Mike Odeh James
ABUJA, Nigeria–During a cabinet meeting hosted by President Donald J. Trump at the White House May 27, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth praised recent efforts the U.S. military has made to counter the Islamic State and its ongoing murder of Christians in the African country of Nigeria.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth disclosed that President Donald Trump had ordered the Pentagon to prioritize protecting Christians in Nigeria targeted by terrorists linked to ISWAP. The directive followed Trump’s October 2025 designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern.” The Punch
Hegseth said the order quietly contributed to the elimination of a senior ISIS commander, and suggested such operations would continue out of public view, according to globalsecurity.org.
“There’s a lot of things we do that the media pays attention to, and a lot of things that the president empowers the department to do on behalf of the American people, that he deserves great credit for,” Hegseth said.
The Pentagon directive lands as Nigerian policy professionals continue to react to a blockbuster White Paper issued May 8 by the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF).
The U.S. Congressional watchdog named Fulani Ethnic Militia fighters as Nigeria’s deadliest non-state actors and accuses some security personnel of collusion — but analysts and Middle Belt voices tell TruthNigeria the estimate badly undercounts a worsening crisis.
The commission, a U.S. federal human rights watchdog, says 30,000 Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) fighters now rank among the deadliest non-state actors driving religious persecution across Nigeria. USCIRF says the fighters operate in flexible cells of 10 to 1,000 men, lack a unified central command, and that some factions still collaborate with criminal gangs and extremist organizations.
The report concludes that Fulani militia, whether in the guise of “bandits” or ethnic cleansers, are indeed terrorists who have caused the highest number of deaths among Nigeria’s religious communities over the past year — more than organized insurgent groups or criminal gangs.
At least 1.3 million Indigenous Christians and others have been displaced across the Middle Belt, the commission found, with many now crowded into camps lacking sanitation and security.
The report specifically cites the Yelwata massacre, where more than 200 Persecuted Christians, mostly women and children, were reportedly killed.
Government Officials Reportedly Working For Fulani Ethnic Militia
In a striking accusation, USCIRF alleged that elements within the Nigerian Army and Police are colluding with the Fulani Terrorists behind the mass killings and abductions. The commission did not portray the military and police as uniformly corrupt; instead, it suggested that lower ranks may be compromised by the very networks they are meant to dismantle.
“The fates of all these kidnapping victims, like so many others, remain unknown to the public due to the sensitivity of ransom negotiations and, in some cases, possible collusion between perpetrators and some officials from the police and/or army,” the report states.
Estimate ‘Understates the Crisis’
Analysts who spoke to TruthNigeria agreed on one point: the 30,000 figure is outdated and almost certainly too low.
“The number itself is less alarming than what’s behind it,” said Kyle Abts, Advocacy Director of Equipping the Persecuted (ETP). “Violence, geographic spread, and casualties are all rising. That tells me these fighters are becoming more mobile, coordinated, and lethal — not that 30,000 is necessarily accurate.”
Abts pointed to the expansion of FEM activity from northwest Nigeria into the Middle Belt, alongside a documented 37% rise in Middle Belt attacks between 2023 and 2025.
“With roughly 2,200 killed in the first five months of 2026, we’re tracking 15 to 20 percent worse than last year,” he said. “The real shift is operational. Motorcycle raids, machetes, night attacks, and timing deliberately set around Christian holidays to maximize terror and seize land.”
He added that the militants’ overlap with jihadist ecosystems — the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), JAS, and Ansaru — signals dangerous hybridization. “This isn’t banditry anymore. It’s an organized violent system, and USCIRF’s findings confirm what our reporting has shown for years.”
“I would say the estimate of 30,000 bandits may be lowballing the total. The spreading of violence into the Middle Belt is a sign of that,” said Scott Morgan, a Washington, D.C.-based security consultant.
Asked whether the violence reflects profit or territorial ambition, Morgan said it is both. “Some of these incidents have shown to be for-profit kidnappings, or dare we say even human trafficking. However, we should expect to see more territorial incidents the closer we get to the upcoming 2027 elections.”
“The growth of numbers suggests that fighters are entering from the Sahel, and there may be signs of convergence,” he said, tying local recruitment partly to a failing security sector. “The fighters have shown a resiliency after military airstrikes that appears to be overlooked.”
A View From the Middle Belt
For Adakole Adamson of Adakson Security Consultancy, Takum, the report’s collusion finding rings true.
“Nigerians, especially Middle Belters, are happy that the report states that the Nigerian army, police, and other security agencies are colluding with Fulani Terrorists to unleash mayhem on Christians in the Middle Belt,” Adamson said.
He linked the pattern to recruitment under a previous administration. “During the administration of Muhammadu Buhari, many Fulani were recruited into the Nigerian military and other security agencies. I dare say a lot of them are not even Nigerians. So when Fulani terrorists attack Christians, the military either remains silent or helps to subdue the ethnic Christians. In this regard, the U.S. panel report is right.”
Adamson also rejected the “bandit” label. “Going by what they do, they are terrorists, and many of them are jihadists who want to re-enact the 1804 jihad in which Usman Dan Fodio conquered many parts of Northern Nigeria and imposed Islam on the conquered lands.”
He argued the 30,000 estimate was far too low. “That figure is grossly understated.”
Mike Odeh James is conflict reporter for TruthNigeria.
