Elon Musk is known for making big promises about the future. Whether it is self-driving cars, trips to Mars or humanoid robots, the billionaire often shares ambitious timelines for what his companies will achieve.
But according to a recent analysis by The New York Times, many of those goals have either been delayed, missed entirely or remain difficult to verify.
The publication reviewed more than 69,000 of Musk’s social media posts and public comments made over the past 15 years. It identified 602 business-related goals tied to future deadlines across companies, including Tesla, SpaceX, X, xAI, Neuralink and The Boring Company.
The findings show that Musk achieved only about 19 percent of those goals on time. Around 35 percent were either delivered late or never achieved. Another 33 percent could not be verified because there was no public update, or the goal was too vague to measure. About 13 percent are linked to deadlines that have not arrived yet.
The publication also found that Musk’s success rate has dropped over time. In 2015, he reportedly completed nearly three-quarters of the goals he announced. By 2020, fewer than half of the targets set that year were achieved on schedule.
One of the most repeated promises involved Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. Musk has been talking about fully autonomous vehicles for years and has set multiple deadlines for when the system would be ready. While Tesla has made progress and now offers driverless rides in parts of Texas, fully autonomous driving across its fleet remains a work in progress.
The report also looked at the billionaire’s long-standing plans for Mars. In 2011, he said SpaceX could reach the Red Planet within about 10 years, or “worst case 15 to 20 years.” Since then, timelines have shifted several times. In recent years, Musk has continued to express confidence that SpaceX’s Starship will eventually help build a human settlement on Mars.
The timing of the analysis is notable as SpaceX prepares for a highly anticipated public offering. With Musk controlling both the company’s direction and much of its voting power, investors are paying close attention to whether his future plans turn into reality.
