IEA sees oil displacement tripling to 5m bpd by 2030
EVs account for 25% of new global car sales worldwide
China produces 75% of new output, controls 80% of battery market
Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja
The global shift from conventional vehicles to electric mobility accelerated sharply in 2025, with Electric Vehicle (EV) sales rising 20 per cent to exceed 20 million units for the first time, while the growing fleet of battery-powered vehicles displaced an estimated 1.7 million barrels of oil per day.
According to the latest Global EV Outlook 2026 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global EV sales would rise further to 23 million units in 2026, representing 28 per cent of total global car sales, despite ongoing economic uncertainties and the impact of the Middle East energy crisis.
The report, which provides one of the most comprehensive assessments of the global EV market, stated that electric vehicles accounted for one in every four new cars sold worldwide in 2025, underlining the rapid pace of the transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles.
The IEA noted that the transport sector currently accounts for nearly half of global oil demand, making the rise of electric mobility a major factor in future energy markets and oil consumption trends.
According to the report, the 1.7 million barrels of oil displaced daily by EVs in 2025 is expected to almost triple to around 5 million barrels per day by 2030 as adoption accelerates across major markets.
For oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, the figures highlight the growing challenge posed by the energy transition to long-term crude demand, even as higher oil prices currently support revenues.
The report showed that Europe recorded the strongest growth among major EV markets in 2025, with electric car sales increasing by more than 30 per cent and accounting for 28 per cent of total vehicle sales.
“The current high oil price environment is drawing consumer attention to the economic benefits of driving EVs. Electric cars generally have lower running costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, mainly due to their higher efficiency.
“The recent rise in oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East has further increased the cost savings associated with driving an EV. For example, based on average oil prices in April, the annual fuel cost savings associated with driving an EV in the European Union grew 35 per cent compared to 2025 savings.
“For corporate fleets that travel long distances, the running cost savings can be several times larger than for the general consumer. Preliminary signs suggest EV sales are increasing in countries with supply concerns, or where fuel price increases have been particularly steep. However, the full implications of the current crisis will take time to register in the car market, due in part to the lag between vehicle orders and deliveries,” the IEA report said.
China remained the world’s largest EV market, although growth moderated slightly during the year. Nevertheless, electric vehicles still represented nearly 55 per cent of all new cars sold in the country. In contrast, the United States saw EV sales remain largely unchanged, accounting for just under 10 per cent of total vehicle sales.
Emerging markets, however, posted some of the fastest growth rates globally. According to the IEA, EV sales more than doubled across Southeast Asia, reaching nearly 20 per cent of total vehicle sales, driven primarily by strong demand in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.
The agency argued that continued fuel price volatility and concerns over energy security could further accelerate electric vehicle adoption in many countries.
Although global EV sales during the first quarter of 2026 fell 8 per cent year-on-year to 3.9 million units due largely to policy-related slowdowns in China and the United States, the picture remained positive.
The report noted that preliminary data for April showed EV sales in China reaching a record level of more than 60 per cent of total monthly car sales.
Looking ahead, the IEA said it expects the global EV fleet to grow more than sixfold from current levels. China is expected to remain the dominant market, with EVs projected to represent more than 90 per cent of total car sales by 2035, with overwhelming influence across the EV supply chain.
China accounted for nearly 75 per cent of all electric cars manufactured globally in 2025 and supplied approximately 60 per cent of worldwide EV sales. Global EV production rose by more than 25 per cent to almost 22 million units during the year.
Chinese manufacturers also doubled EV exports to a record 2.5 million vehicles, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s leading supplier of electric cars.
Beyond vehicle manufacturing, China maintained a commanding position in battery production. The report showed that China accounted for more than 80 per cent of global battery cell production in 2025 and held even larger shares in the production of key battery materials.
According to the IEA, electricity demand from EVs could exceed 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2035, representing a sixfold increase from current levels. Despite this growth, EVs, it said, would add only about 4 per cent to total global electricity demand.