Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Hamed Mousavi, Professor of Political Science at the University of Tehran, said there were growing differences between Washington and Tel Aviv but warned that American pressure on Israel would be crucial to keep negotiations alive.
“We are seeing cracks and a difference between the positions of Washington and Tel Aviv,” Mousavi said. “Unless the US pressures Israel, there is a very good chance that the talks will collapse.”
Former Indian Ambassador to the US Meera Shankar said the fate of the agreement hinged on how much leverage the United States was prepared to use against Israel, which depends heavily on American military support and diplomatic backing.
“The crux is: is the US willing to actually put pressure on Israel to desist from trying to derail the deal?” she said, adding that Israeli military actions in Lebanon appeared to be efforts to undermine an agreement that many in Israel opposed.
The warning comes after US and Iranian delegations cancelled a planned meeting in Switzerland a day after signing a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities. The talks were delayed following a fresh escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border, with Israeli airstrikes reportedly killing several people after four Israeli soldiers were killed by a Hezbollah explosive device.
US Vice President JD Vance, who had been due to lead the American delegation, postponed his trip after Iran withdrew from the talks. According to reports, members of Vance’s team learned of the cancellation while waiting at the airbase ahead of departure.
The truce agreement has faced criticism from both domestic opponents in the United States and hardliners in Israel. Vance recently defended the deal and delivered a pointed message to Israeli leaders, saying he would not attack “the only powerful ally” Israel had left.
Mousavi said the current memorandum represented only an interim arrangement and that negotiating a permanent agreement would be far more difficult, particularly over the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.
“The agreement that needs to be reached is the difficult one. It is going to be more difficult than this MOU, but it will be final, permanent and much more comprehensive,” he said.
He accused Israel of attempting to sabotage diplomatic efforts, noting that similar opposition had emerged during negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal under former US President Barack Obama.
Laura James, Senior Middle East Analyst at Oxford Analytica, said Netanyahu faced conflicting political pressures as he sought to maintain his governing coalition ahead of elections while avoiding a serious rupture with US President Donald Trump.
“He has to keep his coalition together ahead of the elections,” James said. “But he also can’t afford to alienate the United States too much.”
According to James, Netanyahu is likely to delay major decisions and continue balancing domestic political pressures with the need to preserve ties with Washington.
She also downplayed suggestions that recent criticism from Vance signalled a major break in US-Israeli relations.
“The fundamentals of US-Israeli military cooperation are deeply embedded and central to both Republican and Democratic thinking. I don’t think anything changes in the short term,” she said.
James added that neither Washington nor Tehran wanted the conflict in Lebanon to derail the broader agreement. Both sides, she said, were focused on preserving the initial phase of the deal and preventing a wider regional war.
“I can’t imagine Trump wanting to get dragged back into a war with Iran, and Iran equally does not want renewed escalation,” she said.
However, she warned that repeated Israeli attacks on Iran itself could trigger a much more severe response.
“Major Israeli attacks on Iran itself could derail the entire process,” James said, adding that Tehran could again threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz if it perceived a sustained military campaign against its territory.
The latest tensions erupted after Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed several people, prompting incendiary rhetoric from members of Netanyahu’s cabinet. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir declared that “all of Lebanon should burn”, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for Israel to “open the gates of hell”.
Netanyahu has also reiterated that Israel has no plans to withdraw from southern Lebanon, raising concerns that continued military operations could jeopardise the 60-day truce before negotiations on a broader settlement even begin.
