Support for Donald Trump has significantly eroded among independent voters during his second term, particularly among those without a college degree, according to a new analysis by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
This shift has effectively eliminated the education gap that previously existed among independents, who now largely share negative views of Trump regardless of their academic background.
The comprehensive analysis, drawing from nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, offers a detailed look at the fluctuations in Trump’s support across several pivotal periods.
These included the latter half of 2024, the initial 100 days of his presidency, the summer of 2025 when the “Big Beautiful Bill” was passed, the government shutdown last fall, and the onset of the Iran war.
The aggregated polling data consistently shows a steady decline in approval among independents throughout Trump’s second term. This downturn also extends to smaller but crucial demographics that had favored him in the 2024 presidential election, such as Black and Hispanic independents.
With more Americans identifying as independents than ever before, and given their pivotal role in Trump’s 2024 victory, any sustained erosion of this support could signal significant challenges for Trump and Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
These elections are frequently viewed as a barometer of public sentiment toward the governing party.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC and co-author of the analysis, noted that while Democrats’ and Republicans’ views of Trump have remained largely stable, independents’ opinions remain in flux.
“Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” Torres stated.
Dramatic declines in Trump’s approval were particularly evident during his first 100 days back in office.
His return to the White House was partly fueled by independent voters who perceived him as the stronger candidate on critical issues like the economy.
However, the new analysis, which examines both Trump’s favorability and presidential approval ratings, indicates that these positive views quickly soured once he assumed leadership.
Independents without a college degree initially held a much more positive view of Trump than their college-educated counterparts during and immediately after the 2024 election.
This dynamic shifted dramatically within the first few months of his term.
Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree plummeted from 48% in the months preceding his return to office to 31% during his first 100 days.
These favorable opinions continued to decline, reaching approximately one-quarter during the government shutdown and into early 2026.
In contrast, only about 3 in 10 college-educated independents had a positive view of Trump before he returned to office, making their subsequent drop to roughly one-quarter far less pronounced.
“The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” noted Sean Collins, a research associate at NORC and co-author of the analysis.
“That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that that stands out.”
Beyond education levels, Hispanics and younger independents have also grown increasingly disenchanted.
While Americans without a college degree have historically been a cornerstone of Trump’s coalition, he also made inroads in 2024 among groups that typically lean Democratic, including Hispanic adults.
Approximately 42% of independent voters cast their ballots for Trump in 2024, an increase from 37% in the 2020 presidential election.
AP VoteCast data indicated that independent voters without a college degree were slightly more inclined to support Trump over Kamala Harris in the last election, and Hispanic independents were almost evenly split between the two candidates.
The current outlook for Trump appears considerably bleaker. Nearly half of Hispanic independents (46%) viewed Trump favorably in polling conducted around the presidential election.
His approval among these adults rapidly declined in his second term, falling to as low as 15% during last fall’s government shutdown before settling around one-quarter in the spring.
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