Nigeria is benefiting from a significant improvement in crude oil prices as Bonny Light rose sharply from $71.96/bbl in February (up 45.4 per cent) to $104.60/bbl in March, the Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) by Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated.
The report stated that West and North African basket components increased by an average of $32.51/bbl m/m (up 46.5 per cent) to $102.40/bbl. OPEC’s direct assessment of Nigeria was also constructive.
The oil cartel noted that the country’s outlook has strengthened, with real GDP growth at 4.1 per cent in 2025 and healthy growth expected in 2026, supported by higher oil prices, structural reforms, infrastructure investment, easing trade constraints, and improved monetary conditions.
High-frequency indicators were similarly encouraging, with the PMI at 53.2 in February and 51.2 in March, while stronger reserve buffers were said to be supporting exchange-rate stability and a continued current account surplus. Taken together, these indicators reinforce the view that Nigeria’s external position has become more supportive in recent months.
That said, the report also highlights an important constraint which is that Nigeria is still not fully maximising the benefit of the price rally because production remains below recent levels – confirming our view in one of our previous macroeconomic notes.
According to OPEC, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.51mbpd in 2025, before easing to 1.48mbpd in January 2026, 1.44mbpd in February and only modestly recovering to 1.46mbpd in March. In effect, while price is working strongly in Nigeria’s favour, volume is still lagging.
A modestly encouraging signal is that Nigeria’s rig count rose from 15 in February to 17 in March, suggesting some upstream response to the stronger price environment, although any meaningful production recovery is likely to come with a lag.
For Nigeria, this raises the risk of renewed pass-through into domestic fuel, transportation, logistics and food prices (see our recent inflation note), especially in the post-subsidy-reform environment where domestic energy pricing is more market-linked.
