The global oil crisis triggered by the Iran conflict has permanently changed the energy landscape, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.
In an interview with The Guardian, Birol said countries are likely to move away from fossil fuels as concerns grow over supply risks and reliability.
Shift away from fossil fuels
Birol said governments will rethink their energy strategies after the crisis.
“Their perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies,” he told The Guardian. “There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power.”
He added that this shift would reduce demand for oil over time.
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‘No going back’ after crisis
Birol said the impact of the crisis would be long-lasting.
“The vase is broken, the damage is done – it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together,” he said. “This will have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come.”
Birol also addressed the UK’s debate over expanding oil and gas production in the North Sea. He said new projects would have limited impact on energy security or prices.
“These fields would not change much for the UK’s energy security, nor would they change the price of oil and gas,” he said.
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He added that new exploration licences may not make business sense as production would take years.
“They won’t provide any significant quantities of oil and gas for many years to come,” he said. “They will not lower the bills.”
Renewables and nuclear seen as key
Birol said renewable energy offers a safer option for countries.
“I don’t see any downsides for renewable energy,” he said, adding that nuclear power is also likely to grow.
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However, he warned that high fossil fuel prices could push some developing countries towards coal, even as solar energy becomes more competitive.
Birol said the crisis would affect multiple sectors, including food and fertilisers, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
“This crisis is bigger than all the biggest crises combined,” he said, adding that it exposed how global supply chains depend on a narrow shipping route.
More than 50 governments are expected to meet in Colombia next week for the first international conference focused on moving away from fossil fuels.
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The meeting will look at how countries can respond to the crisis while speeding up the shift to cleaner energy.
Experts and campaigners told The Guardian that the crisis highlights the need to invest in domestic clean energy instead of expanding fossil fuel production.
