In the coming weeks Yobe politics is expected to heat up as strong candidates emerge from different zones: Nguru, Bade, Potiskum, etc, Among the front-runners are, Baba Malam Wali, Ibrahim Bomai, Dr. Ahmad Lawan, Kashim Musa, Lawan Kolo….
Looking back at 2019, Governor Mai Mala Buni emerged as the APC candidate unexpectedly. Most people did not anticipate his nomination. His selection was the result of last-minute calculations and political alignments, and although some in the establishment were not supportive, no one openly opposed him. Buni’s prior role as national secretary of APC gave him strong backing from the national party. He went on to win the election with over 400,000 votes, and the opposition was not strong enough to challenge and there is no internal resistance to his candidacy and that has been the situation since 1999.
Now, after nearly eight years in office, Buni is seeking a successor. Public perception is that many are waiting for Buni’s decision about the 2027 flag bearer. However, it is important to understand that Buni alone cannot decide his successor; it is a joint decision involving his political godfather and other stakeholders. Remember Buni made it clear that he rather died than to betray his political godfather.
Buni’s influence is national. His political network, built during his time first as the national secretary and his subsequent role in the party especially during the late Muhammadu Buhari administration and even now, gives him the capacity to pick a successor, but loyalty and the structure of Yobe politics mean he cannot make that decision alone, because loyalty guide such choices.
Likely Outcome
There is a strong possibility that Wali may be the APC candidate. Aspirants like Ibrahim Bomai, Dr. Ahmed and KMS may oppose this choice. I’m not sure of the other aspirants opposed to the candidature which includes the D Aliyu, Lawan Kolo and other aspirants.
Worst-case scenario:
If these aspirants leave APC to join ADC, they could jointly challenge the APC candidate. In that case, they might deliver strong local votes because BMW may not yet have grassroots support. However, the candidate among them with the strongest local backing could emerge as the main challenger. I’m sure of the candidate in this scenario.
Best-case scenario:
BMW is anointed, and the other aspirants remain in APC to protect their political positions (e.g., National Assembly seats). They may quietly support the chosen candidate because open opposition is rare in Yobe politics. Historically, aspirants bow to party decisions rather than protest, maintaining the established political culture. We should not forget that, there is also a growing perception that Wali’s emergence is not just about competence or zoning, but about protecting certain interests and managing or covering up perceived gaps in governance under their administration (Buni & Gaidam). This view is strengthened by the fact that he has served as SSG from 2015 to 2026 (if he truly resigns), making him deeply embedded in the system.
Looking ahead, Yobe politics is likely to follow familiar patterns, but with new twists. Buni, after eight years as governor, is seeking a successor, yet he cannot decide alone; his political godfather and will have the final say. Wali appears to be the likely APC candidate, but other strong aspirants like Ibrahim Bomai, Ahmed Lawan, KMT may resist if they feel the decision serves only Buni’s and his godfather’s interests.
If these aspirants exit APC and join another party, it could shake the political landscape, as they may mobilise strong local support in their zones. On the other hand, if they accept the anointed candidate, they are likely to maintain their positions in the National Assembly and quietly support the chosen candidate, reflecting the long-standing political culture in Yobe.
Finally, don’t be surprised if a dark horse emerges from nowhere, someone not currently at the center of attention but quickly becomes the anointed candidate and effectively closes the race.
