Zambia to lose millions in health funding due to no critical minerals deal with US? What we know

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Zambia may lose millions in health funding soon if it does not sign a deal with the United States that provides greater access to its critical minerals.

A post circulating on X claims that if the African nation does not “hand over its mineral rights by end of day tomorrow”, it will lose access to crucial AIDS medication.

Social media users are not the only ones making the claim. In March, The New York Times reported that a memo prepared for US Secretary of State Marco Rubio detailed how the US may withdraw health support “’on a massive scale’ to force Zambia and other countries to accept terms related to greater access to critical minerals.
This came months after the Trump administration dismantled USAID, the largest foreign aid agency, pulling funding from several developing nations on matters of health, humanitarian assistance, and more.

USAID was replaced by bilateral Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with several countries that represent over $20.6 billion in new funding to fight HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other infectious diseases. A total of 23 African nations have signed deals so far with the US, DW reported.

Zambia at a crossroads?

About 1.3 million people in Zambia rely on daily HIV treatment via the decades-old US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief or PEPFAR, the NYT reported. Similarly, tuberculosis and malaria medications save tens of thousands of lives each year in the country.

However, the Trump administration may ‘significantly cut assistance’ as soon as May in order to increase pressure on Zambia for a deal, a memo accessed by the outlet revealed. The country, along with Zimbabwe, is pushing back against the proposed deal.

In February, Zambia said that the US government’s proposal did not align with its interests. At the heart of the deal is $1 billion in health funding over five years, which is less than half of what Zambia received before Trump took office in 2025. The country must commit $340 million in new health spending as well.

The Trump administration has reportedly asked for biological and specimen data for 25 years and greater access for American businesses when it comes to critical minerals. Zimbabwe has already walked away from negotiations. As for Zambia, while the country has increased health spending, an overnight increase is not possible.

US-China race at heart of health funding?

With the proposed deal, the US long sought to address what it considers China’s easy access to Zambia’s mineral wealth. One of the world’s major copper producers, Zambia also has massive reserves of lithium and cobalt, which are crucial in the green energy transition.

Earlier this year, the US government launched Project Vault to counter China’s grip on rare earth minerals. The US strategic stockpile seeks to expand domestic rare-earth processing capacity as well as put in place long‑term supply deals with manufacturers.

However, putting health funding as a condition for access to these minerals is cause for alarm. For much of Zambia’s population, their health hangs in the balance of a proposal that is part of a broader global race.