“While it is not in my most likely outlook, I could envision a scenario in which some policy tightening is needed to ensure that inflation returns durably to 2% in a timely manner,” Collins said in a speech to the Boston Economic Club.
She added that a large part of the outlook for monetary policy comes down to how long the war in the West Asia lasts, noting that the longer the conflict goes on, the greater the risks become, particularly on the inflation front.
“I see the stance of monetary policy as well positioned to adjust to the evolving outlook and balance of risks,” said Collins, adding that “given this outlook and the balance of risks, I believe it will likely be important to maintain the current slightly restrictive monetary policy stance for some time.”
The Boston Fed president said that while changes in the US economy have left it better placed to withstand energy shocks, the fact that the latest round of upward inflation pressures has come on top of already persistently strong price pressures changes her outlook somewhat.
“More than five years of above-target inflation has reduced my patience for ‘looking through’ another supply shock,” she said, adding that it is critical in the current moment to keep inflation expectations in check.
Resilient Economy
Collins warned that even a swift resolution of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran will leave global supply chains roiled and under pressure. And, “although the U.S. economy is relatively insulated, the longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood of more substantial negative spillovers,” she said.
She noted that her current economic outlook points to “resilient demand,” “solid” growth and the prospect of a “modest” rise in unemployment in a job market currently defined by low-hire, low-fire conditions. She said she does not expect the current high levels of inflation to abate this year, though that could begin to happen in 2027.
“The likelihood of other scenarios – with higher and more persistent inflation, more adverse labor market outcomes, or both – has increased,” Collins said.
The Boston Fed president is not currently a voting member of the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at a policy meeting late last month.
Fed officials have backed away from expectations laid out in the spring that they could resume rate cuts later this year, with inflation pressures tied to the war driving up inflation to well above the central bank’s 2% target.
The case for Fed policy easing was dealt another blow on Friday when data showed surprisingly strong job growth in April, which gave policymakers some space to focus on inflation. Meanwhile, some other Fed officials have flagged the possibility that higher rates may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
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In response to audience questions after her speech, Collins addressed the looming leadership transition at the central bank, with Kevin Warsh on track to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the coming days. Powell, whose term as central bank chief expires on Friday, plans to stay on as a Fed governor for a time while waiting to see if the Trump administration’s legal attacks on the central bank die down.
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(Edited by : Navneet Singh)
