Keeping a front of slow victory and progress, the Trump administration had told the public about the destruction of the Iranian military. But behind the doors, the American intelligence admits a drastically different reality that suggests that Iran remains a strong military force, despite several weeks of sustained American and Israeli attacks, as reported by the The New York Times.
US President Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have kept their stance clear on the messaging, maintaining that Iran was on the brink of losing the war. The US president told CBS News on March 9 that Iran’s missiles were reduced to “a scatter” and that the country had “nothing left in a military sense.” This was followed by Hegseth’s public declaration of the stop of Operation Epic Fury, saying that the operation had “decimated” the Iranian military and “rendered it combat- ineffective for years to come”.
What does the classified intelligence reveal?
Less than a month after the US Defence Secretary’s announcement, classified intelligence assessments said that the supposed “war-torn” Iran has regained access to a majority of its missile infrastructure and weapons stockpile.
However, the original stance was maintained when a White House spokesperson, Olivia Wales, was asked about it by The New York Times. She said that the Iranian military was “crushed” and that whoever “thinks Iran has reconstituted its military is either delusional or a mouthpiece” of Iran.
She also mentioned the Tuesday post by the US President and said that suggesting that the Iranian military was doing well was “virtual treason.”
The Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez took a critical approach at the media reporting on the issue, saying in a statement that “It is so disgraceful that The New York Times and others are acting as public relations agents for the Iranian regime in order to paint Operation Epic Fury as anything other than a historic accomplishment.”
What Iran actually retained
Story continues below this ad
The classified assessments reveal the extent to which Iran has bounced back from the attacks:
Weapons stockpile: Iran has held on to about 70% of its mobile launchers and nearly the same percentage of its prewar missile stockpile. This includes ballistic missiles capable of striking other nations in the region, as well as cruise missiles for shorter-range targets on land or at sea.
Mobile launchers: Approximately 70% of Iran’s mobile launchers may remain operational across the country.
The threat to a critical waterway
Of particular concern to senior US officials is Iran’s restored presence along the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow but vital waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption. The US Navy currently maintains more than 20 warships enforcing a blockade against Iran in and around the Strait.
Story continues below this ad
Iran has recovered access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along that same stretch of water, those warships – and the oil tankers they are protecting – remain potentially within range of Iranian strikes. It is this specific finding that has alarmed some of the most senior officials within the US government.
America’s own military vulnerabilities
The intelligence findings arrive at a particularly difficult moment for the US military. The campaign against Iran has already depleted American stocks of several critical munitions, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptor missiles, and Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles.
Should the fragile, month-old ceasefire collapse and full-scale fighting resume, the US military would face the challenge of confronting a partially recovered Iranian military while working from a significantly reduced weapons inventory. Replenishing those stocks is no simple task – the Pentagon and major arms manufacturers are already struggling to find the industrial capacity to rebuild US reserves.
Trump and his advisers have publicly denied that munitions stocks have been drained to dangerous levels. In private, Pentagon officials have offered similar reassurances to European allies – though those allies remain anxious, particularly given their own significant purchases of American munitions intended for Ukraine.
What was achieved and what wasn’t?
Story continues below this ad
The joint US-Israel assault did inflict real damage. Several of Iran’s senior leaders were killed, many strategic sites across the country were damaged or destroyed, and Iran’s economy is under severe strain. The question of how long Iran can sustain its position – including its halt on oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – remains open.
But the intelligence makes clear that the campaign fell well short of the destruction the administration claimed. US officials appear to have overestimated the damage their strikes could deliver, and underestimated Iran’s ability to absorb those strikes and recover.
(Written by Nityanjali Bulsu, who is an intern at The Indian Express)
