The six-week ceasefire between Iran and US, which began in April, has remained fragile with President Donald Trump threatening to renew the strikes as the Islamic Republic has reportedly restarted production of some of its drones and the Iranian military is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities.
Earlier this week, Trump said that he was hours away from ordering renewed strikes on Iran and that American war planes had reportedly advanced, targets were identified but the Republican leader abruptly paused the move citing requests from Gulf allies.
Rapid military reconstitution defies US estimates
A CNN report, citing sources aware of the US intelligence assessments, suggested that Iran’s military is reconstituting at a faster pace than earlier estimated by the American agencies.
The rebuilding of Iran’s military capabilities which were destroyed in the recent joint attack by US-Israel, which includes replacing launchers, missile sites, indicates that Tehran still remains a threat to President Trump’s regional allies, the report stated.
The US intelligence assessment also potentially questions the claims made by the Trump administration wherein it was said that US-Israeli strikes have deteriorated Iran’s military capabilities in the long term.
Timelines and the impact of the ceasefire
A US official told CNN that Iran will be able to reconstitute its drone attack capabilities in six months as the time to restart production of various military components differs. “The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution,” the official added.
The report added that Iran has been able to recover quicker than expected due to several factors, including support it received from China and Russia and that US and Israel paused their strikes for ceasefire which may have restricted the extensive infliction on Iranian infrastructure.
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Allegations of foreign support and Chinese denial
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had last week claimed that China is providing Iran “components of missile manufacturing” but refrained from detailing it further, CBS News reported.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun denied the allegations and said it was “not based on facts.”
