Secretary of State Marco Rubio has opened a wide lead over Vice President JD Vance in the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new national poll from AtlasIntel.
The survey found Rubio drawing 45.4% support among Republican respondents, with Vance at 29.6% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a distant third at 11.2%. The remaining named candidates, including Vivek Ramaswamy, Greg Abbott, Tim Scott, Brian Kemp and Donald Trump Jr., drew minimal support, while 10.3% said they would not vote for any of the options listed.
The results mark a dramatic reversal from December, when Vance led with 46.7% to Rubio’s 22.6%. Rubio’s rise comes amid a period of high-profile diplomatic activity, including leading negotiations over the war in Ukraine, spearheading new sanctions against Cuba, and playing a central role in Iran diplomacy during Operation Project Freedom.
President Donald Trump appeared to fuel the Rubio momentum during a Rose Garden event Monday. “Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio? It sounds like a dream team to me!” Trump quipped.
Despite his primary strength, Rubio faces challenges with the broader electorate. His general public favorability stands at 46% positive and 51% negative.
AtlasIntel was rated the most accurate pollster of both the 2020 and 2024 election cycles.
The poll also probed public opinion on U.S. strikes against Iran carried out as part of Operation Epic Fury. A majority of respondents, 59.2%, said they opposed the decision to launch the strikes, while 38.9% supported it.
Views on the consequences were similarly skeptical. Some 67.8% said the strikes increased the likelihood of terror attacks against U.S. citizens, and 58.5% believed the strikes increased Iran’s motivation to develop nuclear weapons. Only 18% said they thought the strikes diminished that motivation.
On the strikes’ impact on Iran’s nuclear capacity, 33.8% said they had no effect, 27.6% said they significantly compromised it, 21.7% said they somewhat compromised it, and 8.6% said they completely eliminated it. Just 3.7% said the strikes increased Iran’s nuclear capacity.
At the same time, 45.6% of respondents said the death of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a positive development, while 15.5% called it negative and 31.8% said it was neither.
On the question of Israel’s role, 55.3% said Israel had “a lot of influence” on the U.S. decision to strike Iran, with an additional 13.9% saying it had “quite a bit of influence.” Some 23.9% said Israel had “not that much influence” and 4.8% said it had none.
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