Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Professor Femi Otubanjo, has warned that the political crisis in Rivers State involving Governor Siminalayi Fubara could weaken President Bola Tinubu’s support base in the South-South ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE News on Thursday, Otubanjo described the unfolding political situation in Rivers State as damaging and destabilising, saying it reflects an unusual power struggle within the state’s leadership structure.
He said Governor Fubara had been badly treated in the political developments playing out in the state.
“The treatment of Fubara must be one of the American wonders of Nigerian politics. Fubara has been badly treated,” Otubanjo said.
According to him, the current political dynamics in Rivers State suggest that powerful actors may be pursuing personal interests rather than a coordinated strategy that serves President Tinubu’s broader electoral interest.
He argued that any move that sidelines Governor Siminalayi Fubara could backfire politically, especially because the Ijaw are widely regarded as the largest ethnic bloc in Rivers State and remain a critical voting force in the South-South.
Otubanjo warned that alienating Fubara could therefore mean alienating a significant section of Rivers people, with possible consequences for Tinubu’s support base ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“What has emerged today in Rivers is that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, not Tinubu’s agenda,” he said.
Otubanjo warned that any attempt to sideline or remove Fubara from the political equation could create serious problems for Tinubu in Rivers and the wider South-South region.
“To remove Fubara is to be creating problems for Tinubu,” he said, adding that such a move could alienate key voter blocs in the state.
He further argued that influence over candidate selection in Rivers politics now appears to have shifted away from formal party structures.
“We have a situation in which Wike, who is not even in the APC, has taken control of the primary situation in the APC,” Otubanjo said.
He described the development as politically risky for the ruling party, warning that excluding Fubara could undermine the party’s chances in Rivers State.
“By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the people of Rivers State. You are undermining your ability to win Rivers State,” he said.
Otubanjo said the consequences could extend beyond Rivers, stressing that dissatisfaction in the state could spread across the South-South geopolitical zone.
“So really, by removing Fubara, you are shooting yourself in the leg. It is Tinubu’s leg that has been shot,” he warned.
While acknowledging that political actors may influence candidate selection, Otubanjo insisted that electoral victory ultimately depends on the people.
“Wike does not own Rivers State. He owns the machinery of selection but not the people,” he said.
He concluded that although Tinubu may still have political advantage in parts of the South-South, poor handling of the Rivers crisis could erode that support ahead of 2027.
“A week is a long time in politics,” he added.
