Concerns are escalating that the war in Ukraine is spilling over into NATO’s northern borders, as military drones increasingly violate the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
These incursions are directly linked to Ukraine’s intensified long-range attacks targeting Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports.
Reports indicate that some of these unmanned aerial vehicles have missed their intended targets, prompting urgent security warnings across the neighbouring nations.
Notably, a drone incident in Latvia was even cited as a factor in the collapse of its government, highlighting the growing instability in the region.
Following is a timeline of recent drone incidents involving Finland and the three Baltic states:
Two stray Ukrainian military drones enter Estonia and Latvia via Russia. One hits a chimney at Estonia’s Auvere power station, near the Russian border, and another crash-lands in Latvia.
Lithuania had earlier reported a Ukrainian drone crashing into a lake.
Finland reports a suspected territorial violation by unmanned aerial vehicles in its southeast and deploys F/A-18 fighter jets. One flying object is identified as a Ukrainian AN-196 drone.
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo says strong Russian electronic jamming could explain drones drifting into Finnish airspace.
Estonia and Latvia detect foreign drone activity near their borders with Russia, and the Finnish border guard finds a drone on its territory. Estonia later discovers drone debris in Tartu County.
Estonia’s armed forces say drones detected in the country appear to have come from Ukraine and to have been intended for Russia.
Latvia and Lithuania call on NATO to strengthen air defences after two suspected stray drones cross from Russia and crash in Latvia. One explodes at an oil storage facility in the Latvian region of Rezekne, damaging four empty oil tanks.
Andris Spruds resigns as Latvia’s defence minister after Prime Minister Evika Silina says anti-drone systems had not been deployed fast enough.
Ukraine says the drones were Ukrainian but had been diverted by Russian electronic warfare.
Silina resigns as prime minister, triggering the collapse of Latvia’s coalition government after Spruds’ Progressives party withdraws support.
Finnish authorities warn 1.8 million people in the wider Helsinki region to stay indoors because of suspected drone activity, and suspend air traffic at the capital airport while scrambling fighter jets.
President Alexander Stubb says there is no direct military threat to Finland.
Explosives are found near the debris of a suspected Ukrainian military drone that crashed in Lithuania, near the Latvian border and Belarus. Lithuanian officials say the drone was not detected when it entered the country.
A Romanian NATO fighter jet shoots down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia after it enters Estonian airspace from Russia.
Ukraine apologises to Estonia and other Baltic allies saying Russia redirected the drone through electronic warfare, and denies using Latvian or Estonian territory to launch strikes on Russia.
Lithuania issues an “air danger warning”, tells people in Vilnius to take shelter and suspends traffic at the capital’s airport over a drone in its airspace.
Lithuanian lawmakers seek refuge underground at parliament, while train traffic is suspended and schools and kindergartens are told to take children to shelters.
The government says the drone’s origin has not been confirmed.
Latvia’s armed forces say that at least one drone is flying in the country’s airspace, NATO fighter jets are seeking to combat the threat and people in regions bordering Russia and Belarus should take shelter.
Latvia and Estonia issue warnings overnight in regions bordering Russia, asking residents to seek shelter if they observe any suspected drone activity.
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