El Nino is a natural climate pattern that periodically warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupting winds, rainfall and weather worldwide. It occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months.
NOAA said there is a 63 percent chance of “a very strong El Nino during November-January that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.”
“El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books,” said NOAA meteorologist Haley Thiem.
A Planet Already On Fire
Scientists warn El Nino will compound heat on a planet already warming from fossil fuel emissions and intensify extreme weather globally. El Nino typically peaks late in the year, but ocean heat releases slowly into the atmosphere, pushing global temperatures higher the following year. Several climate scientists forecast 2027 could be the hottest year on record due to the lagging effects of this event.
Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists said “the combination of fossil fuel-caused climate change and a potential super El Nino event makes a terrible team,” warning it could “easily” push global temperatures to record levels. “While El Nino is a naturally occurring phenomenon, there is evidence that fossil fuel-caused climate change is making El Nino events more intense,” he added.
Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service Director Carlo Buontempo told AFP the odds are “strongly in favor of a moderate to strong, or probably strong to record-breaking, event at this stage.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it “an urgent climate warning.” “El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said, urging an end to fossil fuel dependence and a faster transition to renewables.
Winners, Losers Worldwide
El Nino’s effects vary sharply by region. It typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while intensifying it in the Pacific, raising risks for Hawaii and Pacific islands. Western South America faces heavy rain and floods. Australia faces drought and heat. Northeastern Africa could see conditions swing from severe drought to dangerously heavy rains.
Major El Nino events historically bring drought to parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupt monsoons in India and shift rainfall across the tropics.
In the United States, El Nino tends to bring heavier storms to the South and a warmer, drier winter for the Pacific Northwest. Conditions for grains and soybeans look favorable across 18 major growing states, though dairy and cattle face more mixed outcomes.
Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke warned that elevated temperatures could slow US economic growth. “We have pretty clear evidence that the US economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,” he said.
A ‘Deadly Siren’ For Millions
Mohamed Adow, director of Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa, said for millions of people the forecast is not just another weather update but “a deadly siren to be feared,” warning of “failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.” He said East African communities “already battered by droughts and floods in recent years” face further extremes.
Governments across Central America’s “Dry Corridor” — covering parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua — have raised alert levels over drought and famine risks. Guatemala has 1.1 million food rations ready to distribute in the event of a food security emergency.
History In The Making
El Nino forecasts typically diverge at this stage of the year. But early signals — including warm water pushing toward the Pacific surface — have been unusually consistent. Forecasters are aligning on predictions of an exceptionally strong event, said Princeton climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi.
Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan’s team forecasts this El Nino will peak one to two months earlier than usual, based on strong recent signals. Large El Ninos also tend to last longer, Vecchi added.
Scientists broadly predict El Nino events will grow more intense as the world warms from burning fossil fuels, though researchers say it is too early to confirm whether this event is a direct result of that trend.
“Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared,” Ehsan said.
(With input from agencies)
