Dike Onwuamaeze
The Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has stated that Nigeria experienced a high rate of poverty and escalating insecurity amidst rising gross domestic product (GDP) in three years of implementation of President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s economic reform.
Rewane described the three years of economic reform as “a mixed bag of 15 per cent cheers, 30 per cent tears and 55 per cent fears” in his June 2026 presentation at the LBS Breakfast Session titled “Three Years After Reform: Cheers, Fears and Tears.”
He said GDP was at 3.89 per cent in the first quarter (Q1) 2026, higher than the population growth of 2.1 per cent, but still below the potential GDP of 4.0 per cent.
He added that S&P has upgraded the Nigerian sovereign rating to “B” with a positive outlook, citing the benefits of economic reform, a stable currency, and the Dangote refinery while the NGX has gained over 50 per cent, which is 35 percentage points above inflation.
“On the other hand, the impact of money illusion, in which effective values are far lower than nominal values, is a major threat to macroeconomic stability.
“In real terms, the dollar value of the variables shows modest improvements. The gross external reserves are sharply higher at $49.95 billion, as are debt $110.97 billion and debt service cost of $11.29 billion.
“The fiscal deficit at N33.99 trillion ($24.28 billion) is deeply worrisome. The economic outlook is for stability of the Naira in the forex market, maintenance of the current monetary policy stance (MPR: 26.5%), high interest rates (lending rate: 26%), and a moderation in inflation later in the year as the Dangote refinery continues to cut prices.”
On whether the reform has delivered, Rewane said that “Nigeria experienced a reform-induced inflation shock in 2023–2024 followed by a gradual easing phase in 2025, after the reconstitution of the inflation basket
“There is a significant deterioration in living standards and poverty level,” adding that “minimum wage at N70,000 is not keeping up with inflation (while) real incomes are squeezed and the share of Nigerians living below the poverty line rose 63 per cent in 2025 from 56 per cent in 2023.
“Household incomes have not grown to offset the rate of inflation growth and insecurity status is escalating.”
According to Rewane, the cumulative price of 50kg rice, a basket of tomatoes, one big bag of pepper, 50kg honey beans, litre of petrol, 10kg cooking gas, 50 kg flour, and bread increased from N181,720 in 2023 to N479,624 in 2026, which represented a 163.94 per cent increase in price.
Rewane noted that the positive side of the reform included the rise in GDP from $257.85 billion in 2023 to $340.77 billion in 2026; GDP growth rate from 2.27 per cent in 2023 to 4.04 in 2026; stock market capitalisation from $45.88 billion to $112.75 billion; trade balance of $5.72 billion in 2023 to $14.13 billion in 2026 and gross external reserve that grew from $32.91 to $49.58 billion in 2026.
He, however, pointed out that GDP per head declined from $2,139 in 2023 to $1,468 in 2026.
In the same vein, fiscal deficit rose from -N11.34 trillion in 2023 to -N23.85 trillion in 2026, while total debt grew from $108.23 billion in 2023 to $141.94 billion in 2026.
Power supply from the national grid grew from 4100MW to 4500MW in 2023 and 2026, respectively.
He stated that Nigeria’s GDP growth within these three years was mainly driven by consumption.
He said: “Consumption remains the leading component, comprising 60 per cent of GDP in 2025 compared to 53 per cent in 2023.”
Rewane said that petrol and diesel supply improved significantly in the past three years with the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, but their prices are still elevated.
The price of petrol (PMS) moved up by 326.05 per cent from N311 per litre in 2023 to N1,325 per litre in 2026: N1,325/litre; diesel moved up by 120.48 per cent from N842.25/litre in 2023 to N1,857/litre.
The price of 5kg cooking gas went up by 99.68 per cent from N4,360 in 2023 to N8,706 in 2026.
He said the surge in PMS, diesel, and cooking gas prices since 2023 was primarily driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate liberalisation and Naira depreciation
However, exchange rates have remained stable after sharp spikes in 2023 and 2024.
Rewane noted that the Naira depreciated from about N410/$ in 2021 to over N1,900/$ by 2024 following exchange rate liberalisation and market reforms in 2023.
“While the reform improved FX market efficiency and reduced distortions, the Naira has lost about 36 per cent between 2023 and 2026.
“In the near term, FX will likely remain stable at the range of N1,390/$ and N1,420/$.
“Fiscal deficit is projected to increase to -4.0 per cent in 2026
“However, it is relatively lower, when compared with -4.15 per cent in 2023.
“This mean that vulnerability remains high unless revenue growth consistently outpaces spending growth,” he said.
