There are two key events Bisaria is keeping an eye on in the coming weeks — the G7 summit in Paris and US President Donald Trump’s July 4 address — both of which could add momentum to efforts aimed at resolving the crisis.
According to him, Trump would likely want to arrive at the G7 meeting with progress to show on the diplomatic front. Likewise, the July 4 speech presents an opportunity for the US President to highlight a foreign policy success, increasing the incentive for Washington to push for a deal with Iran.
“My base case scenario will be that 70% this deal will be done in the month of June. I would have told you 80% three days earlier, but now maybe there’s a bit of another X-factor in this recent escalation. However, I think we are still headed towards a deal. We are still headed towards the opening of Hormuz. We are still headed towards lowering of oil prices over the next five six months,” he said.
Deep Pal, Director-Geopolitics and Policy at Koan Advisory Group said regional dynamics continue to complicate negotiations, particularly because different stakeholders have varying objectives. “What they will try to cobble together is some kind of a de-escalation framework that promises some kind of limited sanctions relief and stops the conflict for the time being.”
Pal cautioned that such an arrangement would only provide temporary relief and is unlikely to bring a decisive end to the conflict. Issues surrounding Iran’s security concerns and its nuclear programme would still require prolonged negotiations.
Bisaria suggested that while Iran may seek to project some form of oversight over the waterway, the US is unlikely to accept any arrangement that effectively gives Tehran control over the Strait. In his view, the key issue for markets and the global economy is the resumption of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which he expects to happen this month.
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