The Strait of Hormuz can only be considered commercially reopened once five key conditions are met, according to a paper published by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, based on feedback from market participants.
The report comes after vessel traffic through the Strait contracted sharply following the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.
Prior to the conflict, more than 100 vessels carrying around 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products transited the waterway daily, equivalent to nearly 20% of global oil supply. The Strait also handled significant volumes of LPG, LNG, alumina and fertilizer trade.
According to Platts, market participants said a sustainable reopening should be defined by the restoration of functional, insurable and sustained commercial maritime traffic under stable and commercially acceptable risk conditions.
Rahul Kapoor, Head of Shipping & Metals, S&P Global Energy, said that markets differentiate between a technical re-opening of Hormuz and a commercial re-opening, which is based on restored confidence of cleared mines, eased insurance and safe passage.
The first condition is a recovery in vessel traffic. Market participants said shipping volumes should return to between 50% and 90% of pre-war levels and remain there for a sustained period ranging from one week to one month. Such a recovery would indicate renewed confidence among shipowners, charterers and cargo interests.
The second condition is an observation period following a ceasefire. Feedback gathered by Platts suggested a period of 30 to 45 days is needed to confirm that hostilities have genuinely ceased and that maritime traffic can operate without renewed disruptions.
The third condition is broader availability of marine insurance. The report noted that war-risk premiums for routes through the Strait surged by more than 1,000% after the conflict began. Market participants said coverage must be available from a broad pool of underwriters on commercially viable terms before the market can be considered normalized.
The fourth condition relates to physical security. Market participants said navigational hazards such as naval mines must be cleared and maritime security arrangements must effectively ensure safe passage through the waterway.
The fifth condition is the return of normal fleet deployment patterns. The visible return of VLCCs and other large crude carriers to the Middle East Gulf, alongside regular port calls and loading programmes, would signal restored confidence among shipowners and charterers.
The report said confidence in a sustained reopening has been undermined by a series of short-lived periods of access followed by renewed attacks, creating what it described as a credibility gap. As a result, shipowners, charterers and insurers are expected to adopt a cautious approach even if a formal peace framework emerges.
Kapoor added, “With more than 800 vessels still stranded in the Middle East Gulf, our Commodities at Sea clearance modeling suggests the world’s most watched energy artery is poised to keep pulsing below normal for months into late 2026.”
Platts concluded that sustained traffic flows, adequate insurance coverage, navigational safety, restored throughput levels and normalized vessel deployment patterns would all be required before the market can regard the Strait of Hormuz as fully operational again.
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