The Nigerian Meteorological Agency issued its Seasonal Climate Prediction on February 10, 2026. The forecast covered southern Nigeria, including Lagos, and projected above-average rainfall, a longer wet season and a delayed end to rains. The report was circulated to federal and state agencies responsible for drainage, transport planning and emergency response.
Seven weeks later, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency released its Annual Flood Outlook. Lagos was listed among areas where heavy rainfall, tidal movement and drainage limitations were expected to combine during the rainy season.
At the seasonal briefing in Lagos, Tokunbo Wahab, the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, said rainfall would be intense again this year. He also noted that lagoon levels could slow the release of rainwater into the Atlantic during heavy downpours.
In Accra, the first major flooding came with the same weather system. Ghanaian President, John Dramani Mahama, said at least 12 people died after heavy rain caused flash flooding in parts of the capital. Government figures put rainfall at about 140 millimetres in one day, more than double the highest daily total recorded the year before.
Mahama said changing weather patterns were increasing rainfall intensity. He also pointed to blocked drains and buildings placed along waterways as part of what made the flooding worse once the rain started.
Emergency teams in Accra rescued more than 150 people from flooded homes and roads. Some areas recorded electrical fires after floodwater reached installations. Among the dead were a mother and child.
The same weather system moved into southern Nigeria and brought heavy rain to Lagos. Across the city, water built up quickly in several districts. In Surulere, major junctions filled within a short period of rain, slowing movement across key roads.
Along Ikorodu Road, vehicles moved through standing water for long stretches, with traffic reduced to a crawl in some sections. In Lekki and Victoria Island, several roads were temporarily closed after drains overflowed. In Mushin and Agege, water entered residential streets during sustained rainfall.
Access to Apapa port is reduced when arterial roads flood. Trading activity slows in Balogun and Ladipo markets during heavy rain. Movement along Ikorodu Road, the Third Mainland Bridge approaches and the Lekki–Epe corridor becomes difficult when water builds up on the road surface. These disruptions affect transport, logistics and daily movement across the city.
Flooding in Lagos has followed a similar pattern in recent years. In 2011, low-lying parts of the city were submerged after days of rainfall. In 2012, heavy rain affected Lagos Mainland and Eti-Osa, cutting off parts of the road network. In 2020, flooding returned to Lekki, Ajegunle and Surulere, entering homes and shops in several areas. Each of these events was preceded by rainfall forecasts.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has linked rising global temperatures to higher atmospheric moisture, which increases the likelihood of intense rainfall events across West Africa. Lagos sits on a low coastal plain made up of lagoons, wetlands and creeks.
Over time, many of these wetlands have been built over with housing estates, commercial buildings, and roads.
Rainwater now moves across concrete and asphalt into drainage channels that were not designed for the current size of the city.
Along the Odo Iya Alaro corridor in Maryland, drainage workers regularly clear plastic waste, sand and construction debris from blocked channels. Similar work takes place in Idumota, Ijora and Apapa, where water flow is often slowed by tide levels during heavy rain.
Waste remains one of the most consistent causes of blocked drainage in the city. After rainfall, plastic bags, household refuse and construction debris are commonly removed from drainage channels during clearing operations by state teams.
Lagos State has increased enforcement against structures built on drainage paths. Buildings and roadside extensions have been removed in parts of Alaba, Mushin, Agege and sections of the Lekki corridor where water flow was blocked.
Officials from the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources continue cleanup and enforcement work across different parts of the city. Some of these actions have led to disputes, especially where buildings existed before current rules were enforced or grew from long-standing informal settlements.
Flooding is not limited to Lagos. In Benin City, heavy rainfall regularly leads to overflowing drains and road flooding. In Port Harcourt, low-lying terrain and blocked drainage channels combine during rainfall to flood residential areas. In Makurdi and parts of the River Benue corridor, seasonal river rise has displaced communities during peak flood periods.
The World Bank has noted that rapid urban growth without matching infrastructure investment increases flood exposure in fast-growing cities. It also notes that coastal cities face added pressure when high tides reduce drainage capacity during rainfall.
Forecasts are issued before each rainy season by meteorological and hydrological agencies. Drainage systems are maintained in some areas and blocked in others. Wetlands are preserved in some places and developed in others. Enforcement is carried out in some locations and delayed in others.
Construction continues in flood-prone areas of the city. Waste collects in drainage channels across several districts. Flooding reflects conditions established before it begins.
. Ladigbolu is a journalist based in Lagos.
