Iran claims as many as 20 million people are expected to attend processions across the country in the coming days for the delayed mass funeral rites of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, more than four months after he was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike.
The regime will frame such a show of public devotion as proof of their resilience after surviving what they saw as an existential war with the United States and Israel.
They hope to mobilise the public to flood the cities, offering transport, food and accommodation to lift the numbers, and are welcoming foreign dignitaries to show Iran still has powerful friends around.
However, the supreme leader’s injured son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei is not expected to attend as security concerns hang over the ceremony.
Iranians descended on the capital on Friday to see the late leader, whose body has been carefully washed and wrapped ahead of a six-day journey around the country ending in its final resting place in his hometown of Mashhad.
But behind the outpouring of public grief, many still feel the pressures of inflation, international sanctions and repression that inspired the mass protests that swept the country in December and January.
With those issues unresolved, analysts say the regime may be unable to prevent its eventual collapse, despite efforts both at home and abroad to claim that the revolution survived its war with the West.
Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, 86, was killed in a strike on 28 February, the first day of the war, ending a 37-year reign as supreme leader of Iran.
His death marked an epochal moment for the 47-year-old Islamic Republic at a precarious time in its history, just weeks after rare anti-government protests broke out across the country and were put down by force.
Uncertainty now surrounds the future of the regime under his son, Mojtaba, who must contend with a war-ravaged economy, damaged regional ties and an internal leadership struggle.
But a sprawling six-day funeral for the late supreme leader now lets the regime present itself as emboldened from the loss of its leader and controlling its future in leading Iran.
Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor in security studies at King’s College London, told The Independent the funeral will be a carefully orchestrated spectacle “instrumentalised to promote the Islamic Republic’s core narratives of martyrdom, resilience and resistance”.
“The former Supreme Leader’s martyrdom will elevate him in Shia ideology as well as in the revolutionary ideology of the Islamic Republic,” he said.
“This is a unique rallying point for the Islamic Republic to show that despite the death of their leader by Israel/US air strikes the revolution lives on.”
Dr Ranj Alaaldin, senior associate fellow, international security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said that holding the procession now allows the leadership to “project continuity and legitimacy at a moment when many have portrayed the ceasefire agreement as a setback for the United States rather than for Iran”.
While the war allowed the regime to divert attention from Iran’s internal grievances and tensions, an end to the conflict “may now pave the way for the full domestic implications of the war to emerge”, he said.
“Even if Tehran secures favourable terms with Washington, sanctions relief alone is unlikely to prevent the revival of the protest movement, which could mobilise at a moment where the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, set up to protect the clerical ruling system] is confronting existential threats on multiple fronts.
“That could precipitate a brutal crackdown on the civilian population and usher in a prolonged period of instability as the regime struggles to contain mounting internal and external challenges simultaneously.”
Qom Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Mohammad Saidi told Iranian state media the funeral would “in effect be another referendum for the Islamic Republic”.
To facilitate the right outcome, the regime is now converting public spaces into temporary lodgings and organising food for millions of mourners expected in the days ahead.
Hotels are offering 50% discounts, schools, mosques and sports halls have been prepared to house mourners, and bus and rail networks are being diverted to serve the main events.
Mourning ceremonies begin at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a funeral procession.
After what authorities are billing as a massive procession in central Tehran on Monday, the remains will be taken to the seminary city of Qom, the centre of Iran’s Shi’ite hierarchy, for ceremonies on Tuesday.
Ceremonies will then be held in Iraq’s shrine cities of Najaf and Kerbala on Wednesday with prominent attendees from Iran’s regional network of Shi’ite proxies.
Khamenei will be buried on Thursday, after another procession, in Mashhad near the tomb of the Imam Reza, a figure of great devotion in Iran.
