He added that while the move is limited to ships linked to Iranian ports, it still carries serious escalation risks. He explained that even a targeted blockade is inherently aggressive. “A blockade is an act of war, so that immediately escalates things substantially,” he said.
Pal pointed out that enforcing such a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz—a heavily trafficked and militarised zone—is far from straightforward.
There are practical complications, including the presence of ships from multiple countries and possible naval escorts. This raises the risk of unintended confrontations involving third-party nations like China.
He cautioned that such scenarios could quickly spiral into a broader geopolitical crisis, especially if foreign vessels are intercepted.
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In practical terms, Pal suggested that the blockade may not significantly disrupt current shipping flows, given that traffic through the strait has already been constrained.
However, the broader impact lies in oil pricing. The move contradicts earlier efforts to keep Iranian oil flowing to stabilise prices. “The moment you do this, you are pushing prices to go up again,” Pal said, highlighting the inflationary risks for global markets.
Despite the heightened rhetoric and military signalling, Pal noted that the ongoing two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has not formally broken down.
He highlighted that both sides appear reluctant to walk away completely, suggesting backchannel talks may still be active. However, the gap between US and Iranian expectations remains wide.
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According to Pal, the US is looking for a quick resolution, while Iran seeks recognition of its resistance and relief on frozen funds. This divergence complicates negotiations and limits the chances of a quick breakthrough.
He stressed that dialogue remains the only viable path forward, as other options carry high political costs and low chances of success.
For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video
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