Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Wright warned that while traffic in the Red Sea is continuing for now, the risks are rising sharply. “If Iran were to strike or hit any vessels or… infrastructure in the Red Sea, that would probably be the most significant escalation since the war began,” he said, underlining the fragile state of maritime flows in the region.
The Red Sea has grown in importance since the conflict began, particularly as alternative routes have been used to offset disruptions elsewhere. Wright noted that Saudi Arabia has diverted between four and four-and-a-half million barrels per day of crude through its east-to-west pipeline, helping to ease pressure on global supplies amid constrained flows from the Middle East Gulf.
The warning comes at a time when oil prices have eased marginally despite heightened geopolitical risks, following an ongoing U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military has threatened to widen the conflict by targeting trade routes across the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if Washington continues to intercept vessels. The U.S. military has said it blocked 10 ships in the past two days that were headed towards Iran.
Shipping patterns are already showing signs of disruption. Wright said Iranian tankers attempting to leave ports and transit through the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly pausing or turning back. “We have seen a number of Iranian vessels… pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and now they’re pausing… some have turned around and returned to Iranian ports,” he said. This has pushed Iranian crude exports to their lowest levels since the conflict began.
Non-Iranian tanker movement in the region has also slowed significantly, although ports outside the Strait, such as Fujairah on the UAE’s east coast, are continuing to load and dispatch cargoes without needing to pass through the chokepoint.
The broader geopolitical backdrop remains fluid. There are tentative signs of diplomatic engagement, with expectations of a second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran after Pakistan facilitated initial discussions. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is engaging with key regional players including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, while U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on regional developments.
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At the same time, Washington has intensified pressure on Tehran through sanctions targeting more than 20 individuals, as well as companies and vessels linked to Iranian oil transport networks. The U.S. Treasury has described its approach as acting with “economic fury”, aiming to curb revenue flows tied to Iran’s energy exports. Officials have also warned that countries continuing to purchase Iranian oil could face punitive measures, with even Chinese imports under scrutiny.
Against this backdrop, the risk of disruption to the Red Sea — a critical artery for global trade — has become a key concern for markets. Any escalation in this corridor could compound existing supply constraints and raise the economic cost of the conflict, even as the U.S. blockade seeks to tighten pressure on Iran.
