California Democrats are grappling with an unprecedented dilemma as the state’s gubernatorial primary race enters its final days, marked by a crowded field and a distinct lack of a clear frontrunner. Despite voting commencing in early May, ballot returns from Democrats have been notably slower than usual, reflecting widespread indecision among the party’s base.
Unlike previous high-profile contests that saw figures like Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger or Democrat Jerry Brown dominate, this election has left many voters feeling uninspired. “I’m kind of pinching my nose and voting this go-around rather than being excited,” remarked Colin Culver, a 21-year-old San Diego resident who ultimately cast his ballot for Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund manager turned climate activist.
The state’s unique top-two primary system, which places all candidates on a single ballot irrespective of party affiliation, has further complicated matters. With approximately 60 individuals vying to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, including six major Democrats and only two prominent Republicans, the sheer volume of choices is overwhelming.
Party leaders initially harbored concerns that the two leading Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, could secure the top spots, effectively shutting out Democratic contenders.
While this scenario became less probable after former Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race following sexual assault allegations, the scandal only deepened anxieties among Democrats. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton in April may have consolidated GOP support, potentially reducing the likelihood of a Republican upset in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2011, yet voter apprehension persists.
Some Democrats are delaying their ballot submissions, hoping a candidate will emerge from the pack in the final stretch, often relying on polling data to inform their decisions. Others have reluctantly chosen a candidate, unimpressed by the overall field.
The sluggish pace of ballot returns extends even to demographics typically known for high primary turnout, such as older, white voters, according to Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist tracking the data. “My joke is: Call your Democratic parents and tell them to turn in their ballot,” Mitchell quipped.
“They are holding onto the ballot because they have seen this kind of topsy-turvy governor’s race. They’re waiting to make sure they’re making the right choice.” As of Wednesday, only about 10% of California’s roughly 23 million registered voters had participated.
This included approximately 15% of Republicans, 10% of Democrats, and 7% of voters registered with no or another party – a breakdown considered unusual given Democrats’ historical tendency to vote early.
Among the leading Democratic contenders being weighed by voters are Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and federal Health secretary, and Tom Steyer. A Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll conducted in mid-May indicated that Becerra and Hilton each garnered support from about 20% of likely California primary voters. Steyer, Bianco, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter each attracted between 10% and 15% of likely voters in the survey, with no other candidates reaching double digits.
Becerra’s support notably increased from just 5% in a late March/early April PPIC poll, conducted while Swalwell was still in the race.
However, not all voters are relying on polls. Mary O’Neal, a San Francisco native, voted for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, citing his successful tenure leading the city from 2005 to 2013, despite his current struggle to gain significant traction.
Alexa Duran, a 22-year-old recent graduate from the University of California, Berkeley, from Fresno, is leaning towards Becerra, though she harbors reservations about his refusal as attorney general to investigate the 2020 killing of a Latino man by an officer in the San Francisco Bay Area. “I know he has tons of political experience, but I’m just not sure if he’s the right candidate,” Duran stated.
Amber Larson, 41, a judicial analyst from Chico, expressed a preference for socialist candidate Ramsey Robinson but views a vote for him as a “waste” due to his slim chances. Larson, wary of longtime politicians like Becerra and skeptical of billionaires like Steyer, pondered, “Are we at a point where only a billionaire can beat an establishment, career politician?” referring to Steyer’s largely self-funded campaign.
Despite her reservations, Larson ultimately planned to vote for Steyer, drawn by his energy affordability proposals and his position as a leading candidate. “I don’t want to throw my vote away,” she concluded.
