NDC’s decision to zone its presidency to the South appears designed to prevent President Tinubu from monopolising southern political sentiment.
President Bola Tinubu is heading to the 2027 presidential election with the advantage of incumbency, a formidable political structure and his party’s control of several states, but the decision of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) to zone its presidential ticket to the South may have introduced a new layer of political uncertainty that could reshape calculations in the region.
The South, comprising 17 states, is widely considered Mr Tinubu’s strong political base.
For the first time since the 2023 election, a major opposition party in Nigeria appears to be reorganising around a southern candidate capable of directly confronting Mr Tinubu in territories that he banks on to win the 2027 election.
The development comes amid leadership crises in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), with the latter intended as a coalition of opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Nigeria’s southern region comprises 17 states across the South-west, South-east and South-south geopolitical zones.
The South-west consists of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti states. The South-east comprises Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, while the South-south comprises Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.
Based on the current political map, the APC controls a significant portion of the South, particularly the South-west, Mr Tinubu’s traditional stronghold. The APC currently controls 13 southern states, while opposition parties govern Oyo, Osun, Anambra and Abia. Governors in three states not controlled by the APC (Osun, Anambra, and Abia) have also spoken in support of Mr Tinubu’s re-election.
On paper, the numbers suggest the 2027 election may not appear overly competitive for Mr Tinubu, largely because governors and party leaders in APC-controlled states are expected to deploy their political structures in support of his re-election bid.
The 2023 presidential election showed both Mr Tinubu’s strengths and vulnerabilities in the South.
According to official election results, Mr Tinubu dominated the South-west with 2,279,407 votes representing about 53.6 per cent of total valid votes cast in the zone, but performed poorly in the South-east, where Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate at the time, won all five states.
Mr Tinubu won Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Cross River, Rivers and Edo states, but lost Lagos, Osun, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo.
In Lagos, Mr Obi defeated Mr Tinubu by about 9,848 votes in the latter’s political stronghold. While Mr Obi polled 582,454 votes, Mr Tinubu secured 572,606 votes. The result exposed cracks within the APC’s urban support structure and demonstrated the influence of youth, middle-class voters and protest-driven political mobilisation.
In Osun, Mr Tinubu lost partly because of the popularity of Governor Ademola Adeleke, who was then a PDP member, and partly because of internal APC divisions at the time. Osun was the only Southern state that the PDP won in the presidential election.
In the South-east, Mr Obi’s ethnic and regional appeal produced overwhelming victories, while in parts of the South-south, anger over oil politics, economic hardship, dissatisfaction with the APC government, and Mr Obi’s popularity weakened Mr Tinubu’s acceptance.
In Rivers State, Mr Tinubu received 231,591 votes, accounting for roughly 44 per cent of the total valid votes cast. That victory became one of the APC’s most significant breakthroughs outside the South-west; although the state’s result became controversial after a PREMIUM TIMES investigation showed that Mr Obi, not Mr Tinubu, actually had the majority of the votes in the state.
Across the entire South, Mr Tinubu secured approximately 3.2 million votes. Those southern votes represented roughly 36 per cent of Mr Tinubu’s total national votes of 8,794,726.
The political environment ahead of 2027 is significantly different from that of 2023.
In 2023, opposition votes were fragmented between Mr Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso and others. Mr Tinubu benefited from that division and won the presidential election with about 36 per cent of the national vote.
But the NDC’s decision to zone its presidency to the South is expected to prevent Mr Tinubu from monopolising southern political sentiment.
The calculation appears straightforward. NDC believes that if another strong southern candidate emerges under a major opposition platform, Mr Tinubu may not enjoy a regional advantage as the “southern candidate,” especially with NDC saying its southern candidate will only spend one term in office – an appeal to northern voters.
This could become particularly dangerous for the APC in southern states, especially the South-east and South-south, where anti-APC sentiment remains strong among sections of voters, especially the youth.
The NDC’s strategy may face a serious challenge from the increasing number of southern presidential aspirants emerging across opposition parties. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has already declared interest in the presidency under the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is expected to field Adewole Adebayo, another southern candidate, who picked the party’s ticket in Bauchi last week. None of these candidates is, however, expected to give Mr Tinubu as much challenge as Mr Obi would if he emerges as the NDC candidate.
However, the development also raises the possibility of a fragmented southern opposition. The emergence of multiple southern candidates could divide anti-APC votes across several parties, as happened during the 2023 presidential election.
Political observers also believe the situation could indirectly benefit Mr Tinubu despite increasing dissatisfaction in parts of the South. While more southern candidates may weaken the APC’s dominance in some states, they could also reduce the chances of the opposition producing a single formidable challenger capable of mobilising broad regional and national support.
Despite the threat, Mr Tinubu still enters the 2027 race as the favourite in much of the South-west.
The APC maintains strong political structures in all the South-west states. Mr Tinubu also retains influence among governors, lawmakers and traditional political networks built over decades.
However, the emergence of other southern opposition candidates, particularly Messrs Obi and Makinde, could substantially reduce Mr Tinubu’s margins, especially among urban voters, first-time voters, frustrated youth and economically disadvantaged citizens affected by inflation and reforms.
The removal of fuel subsidy and naira devaluation have created economic pressures that opposition parties are expected to weaponise heavily during campaigns.
Unlike 2023 when Mr Obi was strongest among youth and Christians in urban centres, the NDC appears to be attempting a coalition involving disenchanted PDP, ADC and LP supporters.
The South-east is still expected to remain a difficult terrain for Mr Tinubu, despite the APC now controlling most of the states in the region, unlike in 2023.
