The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has defended the borrowing policy of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, arguing that Nigeria’s huge infrastructure deficit makes aggressive public spending and debt financing unavoidable. In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, on Sunday, the policy group said Nigeria requires……
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has defended the borrowing policy of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, arguing that Nigeria’s huge infrastructure deficit makes aggressive public spending and debt financing unavoidable.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, on Sunday, the policy group said Nigeria requires a minimum annual investment of $14.2 billion over the next 10 years to bridge critical infrastructure gaps in transportation, power, and digital connectivity.
According to the think tank, the country’s annual budgets over the years have been too weak to address decades of infrastructural decay without substantial borrowing.
The think tank maintained that the Tinubu administration’s record capital expenditure allocation in the 2026 budget represents a major fiscal shift towards infrastructure-led economic growth, noting that the approved $23 billion capital and infrastructure spending exceeded the benchmark recommended by global audit firm KPMG for closing Nigeria’s infrastructure gap.
“Nigeria’s productivity and standard of living have been ascribed to the inadequacy of infrastructure over the years. While there is a seeming consensus on this assertion, there have been diverse estimates of the true value of the country’s infrastructure deficit.
“The World Bank, which categorises Nigeria as a middle-income economy, estimated the nation’s total infrastructure stock to be approximately 30% to 35% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This ratio falls well short of the World Bank’s 70% benchmark for middle-income economies. Thus, it is projected that Nigeria will need an accumulated investment of up to $3 trillion over 30 years to bridge the infrastructure gap.
“The African Development Bank (AfDB), on the other hand, estimated the value of the country’s infrastructure shortfall at $2.3 trillion, $700 billion lower than the World Bank’s estimate. According to its erstwhile President, Dr Akinwunmi Adesina, Nigeria needs $15 billion in annual investment over 20 years to bridge its infrastructure gap. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), on its part, estimated a lower figure of $2 trillion over 20 years to bridge it. Still, KPMG, the global audit firm, estimated a much lower annual infrastructure spending of $14.2 billion over 10 years, totalling $142 billion to close the country’s huge infrastructure gap,” Akinsiju said.
He added that, to establish which of the estimates can be realised in Nigeria’s perennially constrained revenue-generation circumstances, IMPI put the different infrastructure deficit estimates to the test of probable outcomes, which determine the likelihood of specific results from a random event or experiment, often calculated as the ratio of favourable outcomes to total possible outcomes.
“Among all the estimates, KPMG’s $142 billion estimate aligned more closely with the Nigerian situation, with a probable outcome indicating that spending $14.2 billion annually over 10 years (a total of $142 billion) is a key target to bridge Nigeria’s infrastructure gap.
“Accordingly, sustained investment at this level, particularly in transportation, power, and digital infrastructure, will catalyse substantial economic growth and significantly reduce the deficit. While this estimate will not absolutely provide the full bouquet of required infrastructure, the investment will shift Nigeria from an infrastructure-deficient state to one with a rapidly modernised, connected, and sustainable system. Such investment could generate roughly three to four times as many jobs in the economy, significantly reducing unemployment and addressing the poor condition of road networks, enhancing air transport safety, and facilitating faster growth to support a modern digital economy, among other benefits,” the think tank added.
While reeling out data from federal budgets in the past 25 years, the think tank noted that it was only under President Tinubu’s watch that the annual capital budget came close to what was prescribed to bridge the nation’s infrastructure gap.
“We note at this juncture the near-perennial low budget implementation threshold since 2000, with the obvious inconsequentiality of appropriated expenditure on infrastructural development.
“However, at this time, we acknowledge the record-breaking fiscal milestone set by the President Tinubu-led federal administration, which matched and exceeded KPMG’s $14.2 billion annual infrastructure spending estimate for the first time in Nigeria’s fiscal history. Based on the approved 2026 Appropriation Act, the Nigerian government significantly expanded its fiscal framework, with the total budget breaking records. Remarkably, the budget allocated $23 billion (roughly half the total budget) to infrastructure and other capital expenditures.
“Without doubt, the 2026 budget is indicative of a new vista in the nation’s fiscal firmament, with emphasis on securing debts for infrastructure development. The approved $23 billion infrastructure budget is about the same size as the budget deficit to be financed almost entirely through debt,” IMPI asserted.