Speaking to CNBC-TV18 ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, Vickery said the US President appeared under pressure as the Iran conflict continued to escalate, adding that Washington may be hoping Beijing could help de-escalate tensions in West Asia.
“I think President Trump is desperate for an off-ramp with regard to Iran,” Vickery said. “It was a misadventure, ill-advised, and there does not appear to be any strategy, partnership, or principles guiding a resolution.”
Trump’s China visit is shaping up as one of the most consequential diplomatic engagements of his second term, with tariffs, rare earth supplies, Taiwan, AI chip restrictions and the Iran war all expected to dominate discussions between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by some of America’s most influential business leaders, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser and Meta executive Dina McCormick, signalling the strong commercial focus of the visit.
Vickery said the presence of corporate leaders underscored Trump’s preference for transactional deal-making over broader geopolitical strategy.
“He unfortunately views it as a sort of profit-and-loss statement,” Vickery said, referring to Trump’s approach towards China. “What we’re headed for is a typical transactional, reality TV-style approach rather than addressing the truly existential problems between the two countries.”
Trump has indicated that he intends to discuss Iran directly with Xi, although he has publicly insisted that the US does not require China’s assistance to end the conflict. Washington is believed to be exploring whether Beijing could play a role in reducing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly given China’s position as Iran’s largest oil buyer.
However, Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Chairman of Asia Narratives Substack, said expectations that China could pressure Tehran were unrealistic.
“China does not control Iran. Iran is independent,” Tangen told CNBC-TV18. “The idea that China is going to wade in and tell them what to do is nonsensical. That’s a pipe dream.”
Tangen said the summit would still likely produce discussions around trade, investment and technology cooperation. He pointed to reports of possible bilateral investment and trade boards staffed by officials from both countries to oversee tariffs, supply chains and investment flows.
Rare earth supplies and restrictions on advanced AI chips are also expected to emerge as key sticking points during the summit. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s participation had drawn attention after uncertainty over whether he would be permitted to join the delegation.
Tangen said China remained wary of American semiconductor exports despite growing pressure from US companies to restore access to the Chinese market.
“The difficulty is that China is now suspicious that those chips may, in fact, be doctored in some way and represent a security threat,” he said. “So there is a lot of fear and suspicion on both sides.”
Vickery said any breakthrough on AI chip exports would likely require parallel progress on Taiwan, which Beijing has repeatedly described as central to its core national interests.
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China’s embassy in Washington has already outlined four “red lines” ahead of the summit, including Taiwan, democracy and human rights issues, and China’s right to development.
“This entire area of cybersecurity and AI is existential for both sides,” Vickery said. “One would hope that saner heads on both sides prevail and that there is some easing of the confrontational approach.”
The Trump-Xi meeting marks the seventh face-to-face interaction between the two leaders and Trump’s first visit to China since 2017. Markets are closely watching for signs of progress on tariffs, technology restrictions and energy cooperation as businesses on both sides seek greater certainty amid rising geopolitical tensions.
