The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Thursday said that El Niño conditions have now formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is likely to intensify to historic levels in the near future.
Scientists have predicted this year’s El Niño to be the strongest of the century, also called “super” El Niño, as United Nations (UN) secretary-general, António Guterres, described the climate phenomenon that affects global weather patterns, as an “urgent climate warning”.
El Niño refers to a climate phenomenon which causes an abnormal warming of surface waters in equatorial Pacific Ocean, eventually dampening monsoon rainfall.
It is likely to affect the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2026-27, with significant implications for tropical countries, including India, according to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update shared by NOAA in May.
This climate condition could mean another record-warm year – in 2027 – with disruptions to weather, food supplies and economies across the globe, BBC noted.
According to NOAA, there’s 63 per cent chance of El Niño intensifying this late fall and early winters, and ranking “among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.” It arrives after its cooler “sister” pattern, La Niña, ended earlier in 2026.
‘Super El Niño’
Even before it is officially formed, this year’s El Niño has acquired nicknames ranging from “super” to “Godzilla,” The Guardian report pointed out.
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Multiple climate scientists have forecasted 2027 to be the hottest year on record. This El Niño will peak a month or two earlier than late fall or early winters as strong signs have emerged in the past few weeks, the report quoted some forecasts.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific are driving the development of these conditions.
The agency forecast above-average global temperatures between June and August, with the impact likely to continue through November, a report in The Indian Express stated.
Moderate to strong El Niño conditions will lead to extreme weather conditions, including higher temperatures, heatwaves, erratic rainfall, droughts and stress on food and water systems in different parts of the world.
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‘Impact not the same all across the world’
Ken Graham, the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), in a statement, shared that the impact of every El Niño on weather patterns across the globe is not the same.
“Every El Nino is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,” Graham said, as he went on to describe the role of the NWS in carrying out predictions and issuing warnings about future climate events.
“Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come,” the NWS director told The Guardian.
How does effect of El Niño vary by region?
The El Niño is known to suppress hurricane season activity in the Atlantic, leading the US’s east and the Gulf coasts towards a break. The Middle Eastern nations could benefit from the condition.
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However, the hurricane activity might increase in the Pacific, with Hawaii and other islands inching towards danger, climate scientist Abby Frazier told The Guardian. Flooding is also common in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, with the potential to reach parts of East Africa, and Central Asia, BBC noted.
The US will experience the greatest impact of the condition in the winters, when the South gets wetter due to flooding, and the Pacific north-west gets warmer and drier, forecasts quoted by The Guardian highlighted.
Some parts of western South America are likely to receive heavy rainfall and floods, along with an extra warm summer. The condition also leads to wetter winters in California, according to the reports.
While the El Niño condition will bring relief to the agriculture industry in the US, with conditions turning favourable for grains, seeds including soybeans, in 18 major growing states, it can, however, lead to mixed impact on dairy and cattle, The Guardian quoted.
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Meanwhile, in North-eastern Africa, a weather whiplash is set to occur, resulting in conditions ranging from intense droughts to heavy rains, according to Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist and El Niño expert, quoted by The Guardian.
Experts have also warned that the condition may lead to global food supply shock. Crops such as maize and rice, which are vulnerable to El Niño conditions, and drought, will reduce food production across South Africa, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil, according to the report.
Additionally, the United Kingdom’s national weather service has said that the El Niño could “increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, including a higher chance of milder, wetter and windier weather during autumn and early winter”. Droughts, wildfires, and heatwaves might threaten Australia as well, according to reports.
Effect on El Niño on India
The El Niño condition is likely to cause more intense heatwaves in India, which, in the past, have led to health hazards and hundreds of deaths across the country.
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While some researchers claim that several major drought years in India have coincided with strong El Niño events in the past, they also pointed out that it is not the case each time. This indicated that not just El Niño, but several climate factors influence monsoons in India.
During the last Super El Niño in 2015-16, India recorded only 86 per cent of its long-period average rainfall.
