In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Pospisil said the war has evolved beyond an internal power struggle into a broader geopolitical contest, making resolution far more difficult. “This is not just a war between two Sudanese factions… they both have powerful allies behind them,” he said, adding that the lack of meaningful pressure on these external backers has prolonged the fighting.
The conflict, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has drawn in regional actors, complicating diplomatic efforts led by countries such as the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE. Despite multiple attempts, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed to gain traction.
Pospisil pointed to entrenched positions on both sides as a key reason for the deadlock. “Both sides are in a position on the battlefield where they see no alternative but to continue this fighting,” he said. The army-backed government in Port Sudan claims to be the sole legitimate authority, while the RSF has set up a rival administration and rejects that legitimacy outright, leaving “hardly any middle ground” for compromise.
The prolonged conflict has triggered massive economic and humanitarian fallout. Around 14 million people have been displaced, with millions struggling to access food, fuel and healthcare. Sudan has also faced severe famine conditions, exacerbated by rising fuel costs linked to the wider West Asia conflict, further straining supply chains and aid delivery.
On the ground, conditions vary sharply by region. Pospisil noted that while Port Sudan has emerged as a relative hub for humanitarian operations and some normalcy is returning to parts of Khartoum, other regions remain devastated. “Darfur has completely changed… most cities destroyed, most people displaced, and hardly any food available,” he said. Kordofan, now the epicentre of active fighting, continues to see large-scale displacement and disruption to agriculture.
The collapse of farming and uneven distribution of aid are central to the worsening crisis, he added, noting that humanitarian assistance remains intermittent and often controlled by parties to the conflict. This has contributed to widespread hunger and economic paralysis, with limited prospects for recovery.
The human toll has been severe, with estimates suggesting over four lakh deaths due to violence, famine and disease, while drone strikes alone have reportedly killed hundreds in recent months. According to the World Health Organisation, 34 million people now require aid, and 21 million lack access to basic healthcare, as repeated attacks cripple an already fragile medical system.
Also Read | A strike on a hospital in Sudan killed at least 64 people: WHO
Despite the scale of the crisis, international intervention remains limited. Pospisil said there is currently no role for peacekeeping forces, as both sides reject external presence. “At the moment, there is no peacekeeping mission there… both the Sudanese government and the Rapid Support Forces are not willing to accept international peacekeeping missions,” he said, adding that any such deployment would require a political agreement that remains elusive.
Recent efforts to mobilise support, including a Berlin conference attended by over 50 countries that pledged nearly $2 billion in aid, highlight growing global concern. However, without coordinated pressure on regional actors and a shift in battlefield calculations, analysts warn that the conflict risks becoming further entrenched, with significant implications for regional stability and economic recovery.
