The bullish outlook comes despite geopolitical disruptions in West Asia and ongoing uncertainty over Iranian oil exports, with analysts expecting global fuel consumption to rebound steadily through the year.
“By the end of this year, demand will be close to what it was before,” the analysts said during a market briefing, adding that global liquid fuels consumption is expected to return to well above 100 million barrels per day by year-end.
A key factor supporting prices will be strong demand from countries and companies rebuilding crude inventories after months of supply uncertainty. The analysts said this restocking cycle could help lift benchmark crude prices into the $80-$90 per barrel range in the second half of the year.
Iran’s oil potential back in focus
Asked how much Iranian oil could enter the market under a favourable scenario, Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said Iran is expected to emerge as a major source of supply growth. He added that Iranian crude production could rise to around 3 million barrels per day in the second half of 2026 if the country is able to continue exporting oil freely.
“Iran has enormous potential,” the analysts said, noting that access to foreign investment, technology and international partners could make the country one of the biggest growth stories in global oil markets over the coming decade.
While average global oil demand in 2026 may remain 1-2 million barrels per day below last year’s levels, the analysts said consumption is recovering faster than expected and could return close to previous highs by the end of the year, setting the stage for a tighter market and firmer prices.
Energy imports from US may rise
India’s energy demand will continue to grow and the country will require multiple energy sources to ensure energy security, Burkhard said. India will need more oil and gas, along with nuclear power, renewable energy, battery storage, biofuels and energy-efficiency measures to meet rising demand.
He added that the United States is the largest source of LNG supply growth globally and is likely to be part of the solution as India seeks to diversify its energy imports. India could increase its imports of oil and gas from the US in the coming years, he said.
