Some of President Donald Trump’s allies have recently voiced concerns that higher inflation – a result of energy prices spiking due to the war with Iran – could hurt Republicans in the upcoming midterms.
E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation and Trump’s former pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, pointed to the Producer Price Index results from May, which measure inflation before it reaches consumers.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat this,” Antoni told Steve Bannon’s “War Room” last week. “They’re up at the fastest rate since the Biden administration, so again, not good news here.”
The Producer Price Index said prices were up 6.5 percent compared to May 2025. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index, which measures how much consumers pay, was 4.2 percent up compared to last year.
“At this point, all of the knock-on effects of the Iran war are simply overpowering,” Antoni said, sharing a sentiment that other allies and Republicans have expressed.
Daniel Kishi, senior policy adviser at American Compass, a conservative think tank aligned with Vice President JD Vance, told the Washington Post: “Whatever the objectives of the war in Iran, I think it’s obvious that it does pose near-term political costs.”
Kishi said the high marks on inflation make it “more challenging to highlight what are, I think, quite positive success stories in terms of economic policy that the administration has effectuated with the trade agenda, the immigration agenda.”
White House Spokeperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement, “President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved.”
“President Trump has a proven track record of bringing gas prices to historic lows, and the Administration continues to take aggressive action to deliver economic relief for the American people,” Rogers added.
Trump administration officials have maintained that the long-term impact of the Iran war will lead to lower energy costs and thus lower inflation.
Antoni told “Bannon’s War Room” that as oil decreases, so will consumer prices.
Some Republicans have warned the negative impact of the Iran war, particularly on the economy, could hurt them in the upcoming midterms. Trump initially ran on a platform of lowering everyday costs for Americans – in addition to promising not to start new wars.
But his decision to bomb Iran in February has led to conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, where more than a quarter of the world’s oil is transported. As a result, energy prices have spiked, pushing everything up, from gas prices, which were still over $4 a gallon as of June 15, according to AAA, to grocery costs.
Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, told CNN last week that “people are really feeling it.”
“It’s not just gas prices, food prices, and other things, and I think there’s a level of frustration,” Moore Capito said. “I think the pressure is for the president to reach a peace solution and move on.”
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson told Politico last week that the war could prove to be a “political liability” if it continued.
Sunday, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had reached a tentative peace deal that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The 14-point memorandum of understanding would end fighting and call for the withdrawal of U.S. forces in Iran, NBC News reported.
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