The United States has warned Poland that Russia is preparing a potential military “provocation” against the country, according to sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki cited by Polish outlet Onet.
A Polish ambassador to a NATO country and a source in Poland’s defense ministry confirmed that a provocation in either Poland or a Baltic state is being considered a risk, according to the report.
According to The Telegraph, Onet’s sister newspaper which also reported on the subject, the attack could be launched as soon as the next few months and could consist of missile or drone attacks on infrastructure, as well as a ground invasion from Kaliningrad or Belarus.
The reported purpose of the action would be to drive Poland’s NATO allies to suspend aid to Ukraine.
In April, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Financial Times that Russia could attack a NATO country in “months,” and Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorksi repeated that idea to CBS News.
Naval exercise could deter Russian provocation, as Trump puts future of NATO in doubt
A border crossing could be blamed on faulty GPS or a helicopter rescue mission, The Telegraph reported on the subject via Onet, adding that Russia doesn’t believe that Polish forces would engage without first negotiating, due to US pressure.
Moreover, Russia would demand Poland’s Western allies stop providing aid to Ukraine in return for a withdrawal, which Moscow would consider a victory, the report added.
European security officials added that Russia would likely see greater strategic value in staging any provocation through Poland, reported The Telegraph.
The recent NATO naval exercise involving US forces in Latvia may have been intended to deter any Russian provocation.
NATO could respond to a potential provocation with attacks on Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea, reported The Telegraph, citing German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.
Poland borders Russia, Belarus, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, meaning the country is geographically vulnerable to Russian threats.
NATO leaders set to meet next week, Russia will be on the agenda
On July 7 and 8, NATO leaders will meet in Ankara to discuss, among other issues, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In a text agreed upon by ambassadors on Friday, the countries reaffirm their commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
“An attack on one is an attack on all,” reads the declaration.
Article 5 of NATO states that all members will come to the defense of a member that has been attacked.
The declaration also says Russia poses “a long-term threat” to “Euro-Atlantic security and stability.”
However, US President Donald Trump has signaled his frustration with NATO recently, and in April, said he was considering withdrawing the United States from the alliance.
He is nevertheless expected to attend next week’s summit, as is Nawrocki.
Reuters contributed to this report.
