Rico Luman, Senior Economist for Transport & Logistics at ING Research, said the reopening is a positive development but will not immediately ease the strain on fuel markets. “We have to wait to see if this translates into a full resumption of trade,” he said, adding that even as shipping resumes, “it will take a couple of weeks for supplies to reach Europe.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire, which is set to end on April 22. US President Donald Trump also said in a social media post that Iran had made the route “fully open and ready for passage”, triggering a sharp fall in crude oil prices and a rally in Wall Street equities.
However, Luman cautioned that the market is still in a transition phase, with inventories being drawn down following weeks of disruption. “At the moment, we are drawing down inventories. Stocks are declining because supplies from the Middle East have been disrupted,” he said. He added that tightness in jet fuel availability is likely to keep prices firm in the coming weeks, even as the situation gradually improves.
The supply lag comes at a critical time for Europe, which depends on West Asia for nearly three-quarters of its jet fuel imports and is heading into the peak summer travel season. Higher fuel costs have already begun to affect airline operations, with some carriers cutting capacity as routes become less profitable.
Aviation expert Captain Richard Levy said the reopening of the strait has helped avert a more severe crisis. “The news is excellent right now,” he said, noting that major economies including Europe, the United States and Asia have sufficient reserves from prior deliveries to last about six weeks. “If the Strait of Hormuz had not reopened, shortages would have started in the May–June timeframe, followed by price increases and service reductions.”
Levy added that while fuel deliveries had slowed, large global carriers such as American Airlines, Delta, United Airlines, British Airways, Lufthansa and KLM continue to operate normally, with major hubs including Heathrow, Schiphol and Frankfurt receiving steady supplies. Airfares, however, have risen in response to higher fuel costs.
“Airfares have increased due to fuel prices, but as supply improves, prices should ease,” he said, expressing hope that the summer travel season would proceed without major disruption, even if fares remain elevated in the short term.
The reopening comes amid broader geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire between the US and Iran and a separate truce between Israel and Lebanon. While these moves have improved sentiment in energy markets, uncertainty remains over the durability of the agreements and the pace at which supply chains can be restored.
The International Energy Agency had earlier warned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages within six weeks if disruptions persisted, with potential flight cancellations during the peak travel season. Although increased US exports have provided some relief, they are insufficient to fully replace lost supplies from West Asia.
Fuel costs, which account for 20% to 40% of airline operating expenses, have surged in recent weeks, with prices doubling month-on-month in March. The impact is already visible across the aviation and hospitality sectors, and could extend to broader economic growth, particularly in developing regions.
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Luman said the recent shock is also likely to accelerate interest in alternative energy sources, including nuclear and renewables, although such transitions will take time. Levy, however, stressed that for aviation, jet fuel will remain indispensable for decades, with no viable large-scale alternative currently available.
For now, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the risk of an immediate aviation crisis, elevated jet fuel prices and supply tightness are expected to persist in the near term, keeping pressure on airlines and travellers alike.
