We are all now in peril, and there’s no longer an acceptable definition of where the frontline is. The abduction of dozens of pupils across three schools spanning Ahoro-Esinele, Yawota and Oko communities in Oriire Local Government of Oyo State must not be used to indulge in blame trading. Instead, it should be an opportunity for re-strategising. This is the only way to wage unconventional conflicts, and our methods of training, perception and even public discourse must accept this.
As I have argued elsewhere, a good place to start is with the classic by one of the world’s most renowned practitioners, General Sir Frank Kitson (1926-2024), former Commander-in-Chief, UK Land Forces. First published in 1971, the central theme of Kitson’s book: “Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency, Peace-keeping,” is that a conventional army defending a well-defined sovereign territory must first imbibe the mindset of the guerrilla insurgents, anticipate them, and use their own methods to outwit and outflank them. The book remains a masterpiece that will be sold for decades to come, for, at times, it reads like a psychological thriller – a penetrating analysis of the mindset of the guerrilla fighter and the insurgent.
The incident in Oyo State and similar occurrences across the country speaks to a critical deficiency: we are simply not anticipating enough. It must be clear, both from reading General Kitson and from various studies by organisations like the US-based RAND Corporation, that insurgents will inherently use the civilian population as camouflage. As a core method of operation, they establish “sleeper cells” not just in active conflict zones, but in anticipated future areas. It is a reality that is well-documented in the analyses of the deficiencies of American strategies in Vietnam.
That said, the key challenge for a conventional army is how to develop the intelligence sources and networks to fish out sleeper cells before they inflict lethal damage. If the British State had to reinvent its entire intelligence apparatus to defeat the Irish Republican Army (IRA) after devastating bombings reached mainland cities like Birmingham and nearly killed Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in Brighton, why is Nigeria acting immune? If it could be done there, why can’t it be done here? Our authorities must immediately sit down with international partners like the British Government, strip away institutional arrogance, and dismantle the sleeper cells turning our poverty-ridden indigenous populations into local intelligence gatherers for terrorists.
Secondly, it is unfortunate that we are still going round in circles about the efficacy of devolving internal security, commonly known as state policing. The United States discovered, at the tragic expense of tens of thousands of American lives lost in Vietnam, that when a state fails to devolve its internal security network to the lowest imaginable levels, local communities become sitting targets for a guerrilla army like the Viet Cong. Yes, all the reviews conducted by the Americans since they exited Vietnam decades ago have confirmed this. In Nigeria, the process of devolving internal security must immediately be commenced with thoroughness and great speed. There is frankly no alternative left.
It must be noted that, in spite of the ill-equipped and self-serving propaganda born of the military’s unitarist mindset, what we call state policing was highly effective before the truncation of the First Republic. Operating on very limited budgets, those devolved internal security mechanisms were remarkably successful at containing and even preventing criminal elements, particularly in the rural areas. We are in this position today because the political establishment since 1979 has lacked the political will to completely dismantle the unitarist mindset foisted upon the nation by the military interregnum. We have to shatter it now.
This means passing not just constitutional amendments regarding the Modus Operandi, but also fiscal guidelines defining the exact budget percentages to be spent across the board on the devolved internal security framework. This structural change is vital to curb the lack of transparency, the absence of parliamentary oversight, and the dangerous emergence of a conflict industry feeding fat on insecurity. Nigeria must now establish zonal policing boards that include civil society organisations (CSOs) as members, for the current capacity of parliamentary oversight, to put it politely, remains very limited.
Oriire has shown unambiguously that a strategic review must be done. As William Shakespeare wrote: “The fault is not in our stars, but in ourselves.” The insurgents are not as skilful, surefooted or brilliant as they have been romanticised to be. We have simply failed to evolve a strategy to confront and ultimately destroy them.
This begins with a complete review of the currently moribund Safe Schools Initiative (SSI). A panel must now be constituted under a respected figure – and composed largely of CSO members – to conduct a forensic audit of what happened to the programme and how it can be reignited. Foreign bodies and governments will not grant us funds in support of this cause as they once did unless such an audit team is established in full public glare. Without a functional SSI, the number of out-of-school children will rise even further, providing more cannon fodder for a heightened social crisis. It is unfortunate that all this must be tackled at a time when the fixation of the political establishment is entirely on elections. But there is no alternative now!
Propaganda does not win guerrilla warfare. It only exposes the desperation of its purveyors while chipping away at the authority of the state. Let us be clear: just as there is no perfect crime anywhere in the world, there is no catastrophic failure of public safety without an insider compromise within the security architecture itself. To move past emotional lamentation and confront these hard, philosophical truths shaking its consciousness, the Southwest must proceed with immense caution.
This is precisely why the deployment of forest guards is a commendable step. After all, the collapse of civilisations has always been predicated on disruptions to the agrarian foundation. For example, a key factor in the decline and fall of the Roman Empire was how barbarian incursions systematically decapitated the rural economy feeding the imperial core. The lesson for contemporary statecraft is clear: secure the hinterlands, or watch the centres of power starve.
Deployment of one thousand forest rangers is a good start, but it is merely a beginning from a very low base. Within the next five years, the South West must deploy a rock-bottom minimum of seven thousand highly-trained and well-armed forest rangers, heavily backed by technology. We need no fewer than 1,000 drones to patrol and launch precision strikes across our forests.
If countries like Turkiye have crashed the cost of this technology – offering favourable, staggered payment terms – what stops our governors from forcing a bilateral deal with Ankara? Nigeria is bleeding! Therefore, taming this madness requires utilising global synergy. Singing and dancing about a miracle or a “prophetic utterance” at a time like this is a convenient distraction we cannot afford.
Finally, we must have the intellectual honesty to accept that there is no coherent strategy to defend the South West. To understand where the rain started beating us – and why we are currently this fated – one only needs to look at the insights in Charles Omole’s “From Soldier to Statesman: The Legacy of Muhammadu Buhari.”
The book clearly exposes the “Kidnapping Industrial Complex” and how government and security officials cashed out under the past administration.
But one doubts if our security chiefs have even bothered to get copies, let alone study the blueprints within. Would they read it even if it landed on their desks free of charge?
Walahi, wàhálà wà gan an ni o!
May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
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